Duration and severity of Medieval drought in the Lake Tahoe Basin

Kleppe, John A.; Kent, G. M.; Biondi, Franco; Jensen, Sören; Driscoll, Neal W.

doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.08.015

Cited by 43 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…3). Notably, an oxygen isotope record from Bison Lake, Colorado (39.76°N, 107.35°W, elevation 3,255 m) (32) demonstrates the opposite pattern, that is, drier winters during the MCA and wetter winters during the LIA, a scenario generally supported by oxygen isotope data (and other proxy evidence) from Pyramid Lake, Nevada (40.00°N, 119.55°W, elevation 1,159 m) (33) and other Great Basin lakes (34). Combined, these records indicate that a north-south antiphasing pattern of winter drought (similar to the multidecadal pattern diagnosed from the tree-ring PDSI data) occurred over the past 1,500 y on century-long time scales with an "axis" between the north and south that likely fell between northern Oregon and California and extended eastward into northwestern Wyoming.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 95%

1,500 year quantitative reconstruction of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest

Steinman

Abbott

Mann

et al. 2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Multiple paleoclimate proxies are required for robust assessment of past hydroclimatic conditions. Currently, estimates of drought variability over the past several thousand years are based largely on tree-ring records. We produced a 1,500-y record of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest using a physical model-based analysis of lake sediment oxygen isotope data. Our results indicate that during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (900–1300 AD) the Pacific Northwest experienced exceptional wetness in winter and that during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1450–1850 AD) conditions were drier, contrasting with hydroclimatic anomalies in the desert Southwest and consistent with climate dynamics related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These findings are somewhat discordant with drought records from tree rings, suggesting that differences in seasonal sensitivity between the two proxies allow a more compete understanding of the climate system and likely explain disparities in inferred climate trends over centennial timescales.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 95%

1,500 year quantitative reconstruction of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest

Steinman

Abbott

Mann

et al. 2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…The high desert communities of northwestern Nevada rely upon winter snowpack and spring snowmelt as their primary source of water, making them susceptible to climate-induced disturbances [29].…”

Section: Truckee-carson River System: a Collaborative Modeling Case Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Collaborative Modeling to Assess Drought Resiliency of Snow‐Fed River Dependent Communities in the Western United States: A Case Study in the Truckee‐Carson River System

Singletary

Sterle

2017

Water

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Abstract:Assessing the drought resilience of snow-fed river dependent communities in the arid Western United States has taken on critical importance in response to changing climatic conditions. The process of assessing drought resiliency involves understanding the extent to which snow-fed dependent communities can absorb the effects of uncertain and variable water supplies while acknowledging and encouraging their capacity for adaptation. Participatory research approaches are particularly well suited to assess resiliency in this context because they rely upon local water managers' knowledge and perspectives. The research presented here provides measured insight into local water managers' perceptions of drought resiliency in the Truckee-Carson River System in northwestern Nevada. These findings are reported in the context of the collaborative modeling research design developed for this case study. The objectives of this study are: (1) to define resiliency and present a rationale for a participatory approach to assess drought resiliency in snow-fed arid river basins in the Western United States; (2) to outline collaborative modeling as a participatory research design developed for the Truckee-Carson River System case study area; (3) to describe the development and implementation of a resiliency assessment undertaken to implement this research design; (4) to highlight selected results of the assessment, summarizing interviews with 66 water managers in the case study area; (5) to discuss the use of assessment findings to inform collaborative modeling toward adaptation strategies; and (6) to review lessons learned to date from the collaborative modeling case study and note opportunities for further exploration. According to water managers surveyed, climate change is very important and is mobilizing adaptation strategies that include improvements in communication and coordination with other water managers, monitoring and data collection, and planning. The majority of water managers indicate that future adaptation requires modifying institutionalized water management regimes to allow for temporary water leasing programs, water right stacking on the most productive agricultural lands while fallowing marginal lands, incentivizing water conservation, reducing or eliminating residential landscaping, and recruiting less water intensive industry to the region.

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“…While severe prolonged drought periods have occurred in the Truckee-Carson River System in the last millennia [61], decreased snowpack and warming temperatures observed during the recent drought period (i.e., water years 2012-2016) compound existing water scarcity inherent in this high desert region [62]. Table 1 illustrates water supply variability for the Truckee and Carson River Basins during the 2015 and 2016 water years, reported as percent of normal snow water equivalence (SWE).…”

Section: Recent Drought Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapting to Variable Water Supply in the Truckee-Carson River System, Western USA

Sterle

Singletary

2017

Water

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Abstract:In snow-fed inland river systems in the western United States, water supply depends upon timing, form, and amount of precipitation. In recent years, this region has experienced unprecedented drought conditions due to decreased snowpack, exacerbated by exceptionally warmer winter temperatures averaging 3-4 • C above normal. In the snow-fed Truckee-Carson River System, two sets of interviews were conducted as part of a larger collaborative modeling case study with local water managers to examine local adaptation to current drought conditions. A comparative analysis of these primary qualitative data, collected during the fourth and fifth consecutive years of continued warmer drought conditions, identifies shifts in adaptation strategies and emergent adaptation barriers. That is, under continuous exposure to climate stressors, managers shifted their adaptation focus from short-term efforts to manage water demand toward long-term efforts to enhance water supply. Managers described the need to: improve forecasts and scientific assessments of snowmelt timing, groundwater levels, and soil moisture content; increase flexibility of prior appropriation water allocation rules based on historical snowpack and streamflow timing; and foster collaboration and communication among water managers across the river system. While water scarcity and insufficient water delivery infrastructure remain significant impediments in this arid region, climate uncertainty emerged as a barrier surrounding adaptation to variable water supply. Existing prior appropriation based water institutions were also described as an adaptation barrier, meriting objective evaluation to assess how to best modify these historical institutions to support dynamic adaptation to climate-induced water supply variability. This study contributes to a growing body of research that assesses drought adaptation in snow-fed inland river systems, and contributes a unique report concerning how adaptation strategies and barriers encountered by local water managers change over time under continuous exposure to climate stressors. These locally identified adaptation strategies forward a larger collaborative modeling case study by informing alternative water management scenarios simulated through a suite of hydrologic and operations models tailored to this river system.

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Duration and severity of Medieval drought in the Lake Tahoe Basin

Cited by 43 publications

References 33 publications

1,500 year quantitative reconstruction of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest

1,500 year quantitative reconstruction of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest

Collaborative Modeling to Assess Drought Resiliency of Snow‐Fed River Dependent Communities in the Western United States: A Case Study in the Truckee‐Carson River System

Adapting to Variable Water Supply in the Truckee-Carson River System, Western USA

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