Dual-domain analysis of gun violence incidents in the United States

Abstract

This paper applies new and recently introduced approaches to study trends in gun violence in the United States. We use techniques in both the time and frequency domain to provide a more complete understanding of gun violence dynamics. We analyze gun violence incidents on a state-by-state basis as recorded by the Gun Violence Archive. We have numerous specific phenomena of focus, including periodicity of incidents, locations in time where behavioral changes occur, and shifts in gun violence patterns since April 2020. First, we implement a recently introduced method of spectral density estimation for nonstationary time series to investigate periodicity on a state-by-state basis, including revealing where periodic behaviors change with time. We can also classify different patterns of behavioral change among the states. We then aim to understand the most significant shifts in gun violence since numerous key events in 2020, including the COVID-19 pandemic, lockdowns, and periods of civil unrest. Our dual-domain analysis provides a more thorough understanding and challenges numerous widely held conceptions regarding the prevalence of gun violence incidents.Especially in the leadup to the 2022 election, gun violence remains a high-profile and challenging issue in the United States (U.S.). The U.S. leads the world both in gun ownership and prevalence (the only country with more guns than people 1 ) and leads the developed world in gun incidents, injuries, homicides and suicides. 2,3 The challenge of gun violence is a highly charged political issue both on the federal and state levels. 4 Gun regulation varies significantly between states, 5 with a substantial political discourse around the utility or performance of increased regulation on a state level to decrease incidence of violence. 6 Recent events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting lockdowns, and an increased interest in social justice and police reform should call for increased research into trends in gun incidents, particularly on a state-by-state basis. This paper meets this need through a thorough and mathematically original investigation into numerous distinct features of the U.S. gun violence epidemic, with a focus on state-by-state differences, collective trends, and changes since 2020.