Abstract. The growth in use of Advanced High Strength Steels in the automotive industry for light-weighting and safety has increased the rates of tool wear in sheet metal stamping. This is an issue that adds significant costs to production in terms of manual inspection and part refinishing. To reduce these costs, a tool condition monitoring system is required and a firm understanding of process signal variation must form the foundation for any such monitoring system. Punch force is a stamping process signal that is widely collected by industrial presses and has been linked closely to part quality and tool condition, making it an ideal candidate as a tool condition monitoring signal. In this preliminary investigation, the variation of punch force due to different lubrication conditions and progressive wear are examined. Linking specific punch force signature changes to developing lubrication and wear events is valuable for die wear and stamping condition monitoring. A series of semi-industrial channel forming trials were conducted under different lubrication regimes and progressive die wear. Punch force signatures were captured for each part and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to determine the key Principal Components of the signature data sets. These Principal Components were linked to the evolution of friction conditions over the course of the stroke for the different lubrication regimes and mechanism of galling wear. As a result, variation in punch force signatures were correlated to the current mechanism of wear dominant on the formed part; either abrasion or adhesion, and to changes in lubrication mechanism. The outcomes of this study provide important insights into punch force signature variation, that will provide a foundation for future work into the development of die wear and lubrication monitoring systems for sheet metal stamping.