Droughts in Districts of India During the Recent All India Normal Monsoon Years and Its Probability of Occurrence

Guhathakurta, Pulak

doi:10.54302/mausam.v54i2.1542

Cited by 27 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Because they simplify complicated inter-relationships between various climatic factors, drought indices are among the most significant instruments for monitoring and assessing drought [17]. Guhathakurta [18] evaluated the risk of districtwide droughts across India using PNP from the southwest monsoon season (June to September) for 424 districts over 14 years (1988-2001) and found the highest chance (>60 percent) in various districts in northern India.…”

Section: Drought Is Further Classified Into Different Categories: I) ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Analysis in Southern Agroclimatic Zone of Tamil Nadu using Standardized Precipitation Index

Lalmuanzuala

Sathyamoorthy

Kokilavani

et al. 2022

IJECC

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Drought differs from other natural hazards in the fact that the initiation and the termination is extremely difficult to determine and that its drastic effects continue to persist well after the cessation of the event which adds to the complexity as well as the casualties. The Southern Agro Climatic Zone (ACZ) of Tamil Nadu is heavily rain shadowed during the South West Monsoon Season, several complications arise with respect to drought, causing crop failures and depleted moisture concentration in certain cases. With that idea in perspective, a study was conducted in Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, India to study the frequency of drought over the Southern Agro-Climatic Zone of Tamil Nadu, India. Since precipitation that occurs over a region determines mainly the occurrence and cessation of drought events, precipitation-based Rainfall Deviation and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to quantify the extent of rainfall deficit or surplus over the region. The analysis of 30 years (1991 – 2020) historical rainfall data of various districts of the Southern Agroclimatic Zone of Tamil Nadu using SPI showed that the annual SPI value ranged from +3.3 to -4. The study showed that Tirunelveli and Thoothukudi districts were most prone to moderate drought and severe drought. The region showed more frequency of Moderate drought than Severe and Extreme drought.

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Section: Drought Is Further Classified Into Different Categories: I) ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Analysis in Southern Agroclimatic Zone of Tamil Nadu using Standardized Precipitation Index

Lalmuanzuala

Sathyamoorthy

Kokilavani

et al. 2022

IJECC

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CMIP5multimodel projections of extreme weather events in the humid subtropical Gangetic Plain region of India

et al. 2017

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Since 1960s, India experiences a series of extreme drought and flood events during the summer months. The Humid Subtropical Climatic Zone (HSTC), which comprises the Indo-Gangetic Plain region of India, is highly vulnerable to the climatic extremities. This region is the home for approximately 40% of total population and yields approximately 50% of total agricultural production of India. We investigate the historical variation in dry/wet conditions and project the future changes in extreme events under two different scenarios of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 models. First, the model parameters, that is, precipitation (P) and temperature (T) are bias corrected with respect to observation data and finally six models are selected, which are in right phase with the observation for composite analysis. Next, we calculate the potential evapotranspiration (PET) and the Standardized Potential Evapotranspiration Index to characterize the extreme events. Both P and PET are projected to increase in the HSTC zone; however, both the wet and dry conditions demonstrate a persistent increase in future. In relative terms, P increases faster than PET along the Gangetic Plain region (wet condition) and decreases in the southern and eastern part of the region (dry condition). The mitigating effect (RCP4.5 scenario) of precipitation increase will be overridden by strengthened PET and extreme dry condition project markedly under RCP8.5 scenario. The features are consistent with the increase/ decrease in multimodel mean SPEI, consistent with the spatial pattern of P−PET. The area affected due to wet and dry events will be relatively higher under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively.

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Trends and behaviour of meteorological drought (1901–2008) over Indian region using standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index

Das

Dutta

Sharma

et al. 2015

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Monthly gridded (0.5 ∘ × 0.5 ∘ ) standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) data of 1901-2008 were used to detect spatial pattern of temporal trend in meteorological drought during the Indian summer monsoon period. The SPEI data were converted into drought duration, magnitude and types of occurrence to capture overall drought scenario. A non-parametric (Mann-Kendall test) method was used to test for monotonic trend at each grid level, whereas the magnitude was estimated using Sen's method. Further, a field significance test was performed at major meteorological regions level to assess whether the individual trends identified could occur by chance in an analysis of large number of time series analysed. Significant ( = 0.05) increasing trend of both drought duration and magnitude during the monsoon was found over parts of eastern, central and north-eastern region of India, whereas the parts of west coast, arid western region and north India showed significantly decreasing trend. The trends in mid-as well as late-season drought were contributing towards significant increase in drought condition, whereas trends in early-season drought were responsible for decrease in drought events. The time series analysis of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) illustrated that over eastern part of India the increase in drought was attributed due to decrease in rainfall, whereas the decrease in drought occurrence over western arid region was mainly because of decrease in PET.

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Droughts in Districts of India During the Recent All India Normal Monsoon Years and Its Probability of Occurrence

Cited by 27 publications

References 0 publications

Drought Analysis in Southern Agroclimatic Zone of Tamil Nadu using Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought Analysis in Southern Agroclimatic Zone of Tamil Nadu using Standardized Precipitation Index

CMIP5multimodel projections of extreme weather events in the humid subtropical Gangetic Plain region of India

Trends and behaviour of meteorological drought (1901–2008) over Indian region using standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index

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