Drought stress patterns in Italy using agro-climatic indicators

Abstract

This paper examines the drought patterns in Italy for the period from 1961 to 2006. The condition of drought was considered from an agricultural perspective, using the variability in the annual yield of maize as an indication of climate patterns. A procedure is presented where weather datasets, a drought stress index (MCDI: Mediterranean crop drought index) and geo-spatial analysis are used to assess the spatial distribution and the general evolution of drought. The regional perspective presented characterizes the general climatology of Italy and compares the climate to a severe drought that occurred in 2003. This study identifies some areas (such as major islands, the central Tyrrhenian coast and south-eastern zones) where agricultural drought is likely to be a problem. In general, the temporal patterns outlined in this study indicate an increase in drought over Italy. Considering the poor resolution of global output results for regional and sub-regional assessments, the analysis carried out provides background data and a methodology for climatologists, ecologists and others interested in developing bio-climate patterns within large geographical regions.KEY WORDS: Climate change · Drought · Italy · Mediterranean crop drought index pattern · Geo-spatial analysis · Temporal analysis Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 36: [53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63] 2008 ceding levels of storage. Historical droughts were analysed by Thomsen (1993) at selected European stations for the period from 1750 to 1989; results were that both types (summer and winter) can occur, encompass large areas and persist for several years, although dry winter and spring seasons were less frequent during both the 18th and 19th centuries throughout the Mediterranean (Pauling & Paeth 2006, Diodato 2007. More recent paleoclimatic reconstructions for Europe (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2005) indicate that, when climate changes from cooling to warming, the frequency of extremely dry years is doubled. This was also found by Beniston & Stephenson (2004), indicating that extreme drought events are becoming more frequent. In this context, drought is currently an environmental problem afflicting Mediterranean and European ecosystems with ever increasing importance (Conedera et al. 2003). The effect of droughts may be of regional or continental concern, including the decrease of precipitation and soil moisture or the increase of crop yield variability and reduction in suitable areas for traditional cultivations (Olesen & Bindi 2002). In the last decades, yield losses from drought events have significantly increased in Europe, which suggests trends towards both increasing vulnerability in some regions (Lloyd-Hughes & Saunders 2002) and increasing length of dry spells (Klein Tank & Konnen 2003).The analysis of moisture extremes across Europe (Briffa et al. 1994) showed strong decadal-scale variability in dry-spell frequency. Although drought can be important in a sequence of years with...

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