Drought Risk to the Agriculture Sector

Rodziewicz, David; Dice, Jacob

doi:10.18651/er/v105n2rodziewiczdice

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Drought is a complex phenomenon and one of the greatest recurring natural disasters. It causes substantial losses in agriculture sectors [1][2][3][4][5][6], natural ecosystems [7][8][9], and forestry [10][11][12]. It is also called a creeping phenomenon with its influences gradually take in an area over a period and may persist for a long period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Logistic Regression Analysis for Spatial Patterns of Drought Persistence

et al. 2021

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Drought is one of the natural hazards with potentially significant impacts on society, economy, and other natural resources over the globe. However, the understanding of drought characteristics and its persistence can significantly help to reduce the potential impacts of drought. Moreover, the knowledge about the spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal drought frequency and drought persistence is important for water resource management, agricultural development, energy consumption, and crop yields. Therefore, the present study is employed to examine the seasonal drought frequency and drought persistence in the region. In this regard, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at the three-month time scale was used to determine meteorological drought. Furthermore, the logistic regression model is used to calculate the odds and probability of drought persistence from one season to the next for the selected stations by identifying the spatial pattern of seasonal drought frequency and persistence. The potential of the current analysis is validated on six selected stations of the northern area of Pakistan. The outcomes related to the current analysis provide the basis for taking more considerations on early warning systems and help to make the valuable decision for water resource management and agriculture sectors in Pakistan.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Logistic Regression Analysis for Spatial Patterns of Drought Persistence

et al. 2021

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“…Multiple studies have indicated that various climate change scenarios have been linked to an observed increase in temperature and greater fuctuations in precipitation [19,20]. Meteorological drought and agricultural drought are interconnected through various aspects, such as the scarcity of rainfall, deviation from normal meteorological factors like evapotranspiration, insufciency of soil moisture, and a decline in groundwater levels [21]. When a meteorological drought persists for an extended period, it can cause an agricultural drought because the lack of precipitation leads to a lack of soil moisture, resulting in lower crop production [1,22,23].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

Amin,

Niaz,

Albasheir

et al. 2023

Complexity

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The current study aimed to examine the interseasonal characteristics of meteorological drought. For this purpose, a new comprehensive framework is proposed. The framework consists of two major stages. In the first stage of the framework, the K-means method is utilized to identify homogeneous clusters. Besides, the Monte Carlo feature selection (MCFS) is applied to select more important stations from the varying clusters. In the second stage, the standardized precipitation index at a three-time scale (SPI-3), the conditional fixed effect binary logistic regression model (CFEBLRM), and the random effect binary logistic regression model (REBLRM) are utilized. The significance of CFEBLRM and REBLRM is measured by log-likelihood values, log-likelihood ratio chi-square test (LRCST), Wald chi-square tests (WCT), and p values. The Hausman test (HT) is applied to identify endogeneity and suggests the appropriate model in CFEBLRM and REBLRM. The results from the proposed framework indicate that the drought persists in the summer to autumn and autumn to winter seasons between 90 and 99 percent. The odds ratio of CFEBLRM for the summer-autumn season indicates that the increment in precipitation will decrease the drought persistence in the autumn season. The result of the current study facilitates the decision-makers to understand the effects of meteorological drought occurrences better and improve strategies for mitigating drought effects and managing seasonal crops in the Punjab province in Pakistan.

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“…Three drought events, in 1980, 1988, and 2012, even surpassed the average tropical cyclone cost at a whopping USD 33.5 billion, USD 45.0 billion, and USD 34.5 billion, respectively [2]. In California, the year 2014 alone racked up USD 4 billion in damage due to extensive drought [3]. However, severe drought events are not exclusive to the last forty years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, the 2012 drought in the Midwest resulted in a loss of more than one-quarter of United States corn production by volume. These losses are largely from diminished yields and lower production during drought episodes [3]. Being able to better predict when droughts occur, especially severe ones, will help reduce the widespread impact of these costly natural disasters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought in the Breadbasket of America and the Influence of Oceanic Teleconnections

Campbell,

Goodrich

2023

Hydrology

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From 1980 to 2020, drought events accounted for only 11.4% of the billion-dollar disasters in the United States (U.S.), yet caused the second-highest total amount in damages, at USD 236.6 billion. With the average cost of a drought being upwards of USD 9.5 billion, these natural disasters can create serious problems in agriculture. Drought is defined as a period of below-average precipitation that causes damage to agriculture and water supplies. Previous research has linked drought events in the U.S. Great Plains to oceanic teleconnections in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, indicating the influence of El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This study looks to identify areas of the Great Plains where drought, as measured by PDSI, has the strongest relationship to ENSO, PDO, and AMO from 1950 to 2019. The states studied are Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Texas, Nebraska, and Kansas because these rank as the second through seventh most agriculturally productive states in terms of crop and livestock production. Results show that most of this region displays a relationship between drought and the ENSO and PDO, with less of the region displaying a relationship with the AMO.

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Drought Risk to the Agriculture Sector

Cited by 5 publications

References 7 publications

Logistic Regression Analysis for Spatial Patterns of Drought Persistence

Logistic Regression Analysis for Spatial Patterns of Drought Persistence

A New Comprehensive Framework for Identifying and Monitoring the Interseasonal Characteristics of Meteorological Drought

Drought in the Breadbasket of America and the Influence of Oceanic Teleconnections

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