Drought risk assessment of farmers considering their planting behaviors and awareness: A case study of a County from China

Guo, Hao; Wen, Xiaolan; Wu, Yaoyao; Wang, Jing’ai; Liang, Qin’ou

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108728

Cited by 12 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Agriculture was a direct and sensitive sector of meteorological drought [4,5]. Drought has reduced China's grain production by 16,159 million ha in the last 60 years [6]. Investigating agricultural drought risk has become the focus of scientific research.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk Assessment Framework: Coupled a Copula Function to Select Return Periods and the Jensen Model to Calculate Yield Loss

Liu

Pan

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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China is one of the regions with the most frequent drought disasters and serious social and economic losses. Agricultural drought loss is one the most serious natural disasters. Due to climate change, the regional agricultural drought risk assessment has always been the focus of the academic circle. This study takes Zunyi City as an example, which is the most typical City of karst landform development. The monthly precipitation data set of ground meteorological observation stations in Zunyi City from 1956 to 2020 was selected, and the drought characteristic variables were extracted by the coupled use of the precipitation anomaly percentage (Pa) index and the theory of runs. The Copula function was applied to establish the joint distribution model of characteristic variables, obtaining the drought frequency and drought return periods. Combined with the Jensen model, the agricultural drought loss rate under different drought return periods in the target year (2020) was calculated and evaluated. The results showed that the Gumbel-Hougaard copula function was suitable for the joint distribution of drought joint variables in Zunyi City. From 1956 to 2020, fewer droughts occurred in Zhengan and Wuchuan, and the most droughts took place in Fenggang, Meitan, and Yuqing. The average drought duration in each county was about 1.5 months, and the average drought severity was about 0.35 in spatial distribution. Crop loss rate caused by drought increased and the affected area expanded with the increase of drought return periods (5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years) in temporal distribution. Meanwhile, the drought disaster was most drastic in the eastern region, followed by the south, north, west, and central area. The results were highly consistent with the historical drought in Zunyi City, which verified the validity of the model. This study could provide scientific knowledge for drought resistance and reasonable mitigation programing for the security of the regional agricultural production and the sustainability of social and economic development.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk Assessment Framework: Coupled a Copula Function to Select Return Periods and the Jensen Model to Calculate Yield Loss

Liu

Pan

et al. 2023

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Many studies have confirmed that the rise in agricultural risk is attributable to a variety of factors, such as climate change, natural disasters, geographic conditions, imperfect markets, changes in agricultural yields and prices, and the lack of finance, credit, and insurance [ 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 ]. As the fundamental organizational unit of agricultural production and livelihood, peasant households are highly vulnerable to agricultural risks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When facing risks, the most vulnerable groups are often peasant households with insufficient resources and poor adaptability [ 16 ]. For example, climate change risks can seriously affect ecosystem services and agricultural production, increasing food insecurity for peasant households [ 11 , 17 ]. Financial risks can raise the cost of credit and hinder the diversification of peasant households’ livelihood activities, limiting the potential to increase peasant households’ income [ 18 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing Agricultural Input and Production for Different Types of at-Risk Peasant Households: An Empirical Study of Typical Counties in the Yimeng Mountain Area of Northern China

Wang

Lin

2022

IJERPH

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Using typical counties in the Yimeng Mountain area of northern China as an example, this paper analyzed the household and agricultural input characteristics of different types of peasant households using survey data from 262 farm households. The target minimization of the total absolute deviations (MOTAD) model was applied to determine the optimal combinations in the allocation of agricultural input factors and production for different types of at-risk peasant households to obtain the ideal agricultural income. The relevant results are twofold. (1) The agricultural input behaviors of different types of peasant households vary significantly. The highest levels of agricultural land, labor, and yield-increasing and labor-saving inputs included I part-time peasant households (I PTPH), followed by full-time peasant households (FTPH), while the input levels of II part-time peasant households (II PTPH) and non-agricultural peasant households (NAPH) with higher levels of non-agricultural employment gradually decreased. In general, an increase in peasant households’ part-time employment revealed an inverted U-shaped trend in the agricultural input level, with a trajectory of I PTPH > FTPH > II PTPH > NAPH. (2) The current agricultural inputs and production combinations of different types of peasant households have room for improvement. It is necessary to adjust agricultural inputs and optimize production combinations to obtain target incomes. Overall, all types of peasant households must streamline labor inputs and increase capital inputs, except for I PTPH, for which capital inputs should be reduced. Following optimization, economic crops gradually replace grain crops, and the optimal agricultural incomes of peasant households will be improved. The study results provide practical policy insights for reducing agricultural production risks and improving agricultural production incomes.

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Characteristics and driving factors of abandoned cultivated land in the hilly regions of southern China: A case study in Longnan, Jiangxi Province

Chen

et al. 2023

J. Mt. Sci.

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Drought risk assessment of farmers considering their planting behaviors and awareness: A case study of a County from China

Cited by 12 publications

References 48 publications

A New Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk Assessment Framework: Coupled a Copula Function to Select Return Periods and the Jensen Model to Calculate Yield Loss

A New Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk Assessment Framework: Coupled a Copula Function to Select Return Periods and the Jensen Model to Calculate Yield Loss

Optimizing Agricultural Input and Production for Different Types of at-Risk Peasant Households: An Empirical Study of Typical Counties in the Yimeng Mountain Area of Northern China

Characteristics and driving factors of abandoned cultivated land in the hilly regions of southern China: A case study in Longnan, Jiangxi Province

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