Drought, Local Public Goods, and Inter-communal Conflicts: Testing the Mediating Effects of Public Service Provisions

Cao, Xun; Gizelis, Theodora‐Ismene; Shortland, Anja; Urdal, Henrik

doi:10.1080/10242694.2020.1855560

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 88 publications

(63 reference statements)

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“…How the government is perceived to be providing for its people plays a major role in shaping state-citizen relations, and consequently how the effects of climate shocks and pressures could manifest. In this regard, access to essential services and infrastructure, such as water, electricity, roads, and health care, is widely seen as indicative of the level of involvement or interest by the government in supporting local livelihoods (Cao et al 2020;Detges 2016). For example, Slettebak (2013) shows that the effect of climatic shocks on the risk of politically motivated violence is higher where access to education is poor.…”

Section: Governance and State-citizen Relationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Foreign Policy Implications of Climate Change in Focus Regions of European External Action

Detges,

Foong

2022

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In a globalised world, the effects of climate change are likely to cascade across borders. Climate impacts in one location may have far reaching consequences in other places by affecting trade, migration, investments, and foreign policy objectives. Whether such cascading effects are likely to materialise depends in turn on a number of social, economic, and political factors that reinforce or attenuate the effects of climate change on economic development, migration, political stability, etc. These moderating conditions are crucial when considering possible challenges in connection with climate change, and opportunities for addressing them. In this report, we discuss the possible effects of climate change on issues at the core of European foreign, security, and development policy – namely, the impacts of climate change on livelihoods, food security, migration, and political stability in regions with close ties to Europe, where those impacts may affect European foreign policy objectives in a significant way. Across regions, we identify a number of challenges and opportunities in different scenarios, which assume either more or less favourable moderating conditions (i.e., with regard to technology and physical infrastructure; resource and conflict management; economic opportunities; trade and access to markets; governance and state-citizen relations; and social and diplomatic relations). Despite important challenges and mounting climatic pressures in all considered regions, our results leave some room for optimism. Depending on their ability to build strong and inclusive institutions, promote sustainable development, and strengthen social and diplomatic ties, affected countries and their partners might be able to reduce the risk of adverse cascading effects in connection with a warming world. Climate change will become increasingly challenging in the coming years, yet its effects are ultimately determined by social, economic, and political factors. Studying what makes societies susceptible to be adversely affected by climate change and how such conditions evolve over time then gives an indication of where to direct adaptation efforts. The moderating conditions presented in this report offer as many “levers” for preparing against the adverse effects of climate change.

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Section: Governance and State-citizen Relationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Foreign Policy Implications of Climate Change in Focus Regions of European External Action

Detges,

Foong

2022

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Adaptation and Peace: Extending the Agenda for Capacity‐Building in Climate and Conflict‐Affected Communities

Bedoya Taborda,

Barnes,

Morrison

2024

WIREs Climate Change

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Climate change impacts on the social–ecological conditions that communities depend on may increase the vulnerabilities to new conflicts. Yet, the communities that will be most impacted by climate change, as noted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are already conflict‐affected communities. Here, we present the results of a systematic review of quantitative and qualitative studies (n = 212) in Spanish and English on the climate–conflict relationship. We found that most studies are focused on a direct relationship between climate change and violent conflict, and there has been less attention on a contextual or indirect relationship in already conflict‐affected communities. Studies on this contextual or indirect relationship suggest a climate change–conflict cycle that is negatively reinforcing, whereby violent conflict increases climate change vulnerability and feedback from climate change increases violent conflict vulnerability. While limited in number, such studies provide important insights enabling further conceptual development and empirical examination of how climate impacts interact with violent conflict, and how governance efforts can simultaneously support peacebuilding and climate change adaptation. Drawing this work together with the latest frameworks in conflict studies and adaptation, we sketch out a promising synthetic agenda, focusing on how to design policies and projects that build synergistic capacities and address cumulative and interactive impacts of climate change and violent conflict. Without such insight, efforts to treat climate and conflict in parallel may be ineffective or even counterproductive, worsening violent conflict and, in turn, further reducing the capacities of communities to build peace and resilience.

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Climatic extremes, violent conflicts, and population change in China in 1741–1910: An investigation using spatial econometrics

Lee

Wang

2023

Anthropocene

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Drought, Local Public Goods, and Inter-communal Conflicts: Testing the Mediating Effects of Public Service Provisions

Cited by 5 publications

References 88 publications

Foreign Policy Implications of Climate Change in Focus Regions of European External Action

Foreign Policy Implications of Climate Change in Focus Regions of European External Action

Adaptation and Peace: Extending the Agenda for Capacity‐Building in Climate and Conflict‐Affected Communities

Climatic extremes, violent conflicts, and population change in China in 1741–1910: An investigation using spatial econometrics

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