Drought Evolution Due to Climate Change and Links to Precipitation Intensity in the Haihe River Basin

Abstract

Droughts often have a substantial impact on normal socio-economic activities and agricultural production. The Haihe River Basin, one of the primary food production areas in China, has become increasingly sensitive to alternating droughts and floods, and the sharp transitions between them, due to rapid economic development and population growth combined with climate change. In this study, we employ the self-organizing map (SOM) neural network method to perform a cluster analysis on 43 meteorological stations in the study area, dividing the basin into five sub-regions. Then daily precipitation data are collected, and the number of continuous dry days is used as a drought index to investigate drought evolution trends. Lastly, the Pearson-III curve is used to analyze the first daily precipitation after different drought duration, and the relationships between precipitation intensity, drought duration, and interdecadal drought frequency are observed. The results demonstrate that under the climate warming of the Haihe River Basin, the frequency of droughts increases throughout the whole basin, while the droughts are of shorter duration, the probability of more intense first daily precipitation after droughts increases during the dry-wet transition. The research provides a useful reference for the planning and management of water resources in the Haihe River Basin.

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