Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach

Shayanmehr, Samira; Henneberry, Shida Rastegari; Sabouni, Mahmood Sabouhi; Foroushani, Naser Shahnoushi

doi:10.3390/ijerph17145264

Cited by 30 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…is the 10th most commonly cultivated cereal worldwide and one of the most important food crops in the Mediterranean Rim with an important role in the human diet [1,2]. However, its production is threatened by climate change and extreme weather events [3][4][5]: North Africa, including Tunisia, is recognized as a climate change hotspot region [6][7][8] and is, therefore, particularly vulnerable to drought stress [9][10][11][12][13], which limits growth, development, and crop yield [14][15][16][17]. By 2030, Tunisia is expected to suffer from an annual average increase in temperature of 1.1 • C and thus an annual acute decrease in precipitation and water resources [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Environment Screening of Durum Wheat Genotypes for Drought Tolerance in Changing Climatic Events

et al. 2021

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Durum wheat is the most widely grown cereal in Tunisia, but its production is threatened by drought, which is exacerbated by climate change. This study aimed to identify drought-tolerant durum wheat genotypes from five modern varieties and six landraces in a multi-environment trial at two sites (Kef and Siliana, Tunisia) during three growing seasons under rainfed and irrigated conditions. Six drought tolerance indices (mean productivity (MP), geometric mean productivity (GMP), stress susceptibility index (SSI), tolerance index (TOL), stress tolerance index (STI), and yield stability index (YSI)) were used to evaluate the 11 genotypes. The environment was the dominant source of variation for grain yield (GY; 94.27%), followed by the environment × genotype interaction (4.06%) and genotype (1.65%). Cluster analysis based on GY identified four environment-based groups with distinct water treatments, extreme minimum/maximum temperatures, and rainfall. Principal component analysis and a correlation matrix revealed that drought tolerance indices significantly correlated with GY in non-stressed and stressed conditions and could be separated into four groups. Based on STI, MP, and GMP, G6 and G8 (landraces) were the most drought-tolerant genotypes attaining high GY in both conditions. TOL was able to discriminate G1, G3, and G5 (modern varieties) as well as drought-susceptible genotypes, all of which were suitable for irrigation. Genotypes G7, G9, G10, and G11 (landraces), which had high SSI and lowest STI, MP, GMP, and YSI values, were susceptible to drought and were thus not suitable for cultivation in both conditions. Finally, G2 and G4 (modern varieties), which had an intermediate rank for different indices, were classified as semi-tolerant or sensitive genotypes. Drought tolerance indices and genotype ranks were helpful tools to screen drought-tolerant genotypes with a large adaptation to a range of environments, namely irrigated and rainfed conditions (landraces G6 and G8), or genotypes with the ability to adapt (modern varieties G1, G3, and G5) to irrigated conditions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Environment Screening of Durum Wheat Genotypes for Drought Tolerance in Changing Climatic Events

et al. 2021

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“…In this study, the Cobb-Douglas Yield Response (CDYR) model was used to assess the sensitivity of crops yield to climatic variables, such as minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as precipitation [47,48]. The CDYR model, after taking the logarithm of both sides of the equation, can be presented as follows:…”

Section: Economic Models 251 Generalized Maximum Entropy (Gme) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources and Crop Production in an Arid Region

et al. 2022

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Climate change is one of the most pressing global issues of the twenty-first century. This phenomenon has an increasingly severe impact on water resources and crop production. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources, crop production, and agricultural sustainability in an arid environment in Iran. To this end, the study constructs a new integrated climate-hydrological-economic model to assess the impact of future climate change on water resources and crop production. Furthermore, the agricultural sustainability is evaluated using the multicriteria decision making (MCDM) technique in the context of climate change. The findings regarding the prediction of climate variables show that the minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to increase by about 5.88% and 6.05%, respectively, while precipitation would decrease by approximately 30.68%. The results of the research reveal that water availability will decrease by about 13.79–15.45% under different climate scenarios. Additionally, the findings show that in the majority of cases crop production will reduce in response to climate scenarios so that rainfed wheat will experience the greatest decline (approximately 59.95%). The results of the MCDM model show that climate change can have adverse effects on economic and environmental aspects and, consequently, on the sustainability of the agricultural system of the study area. Our findings can inform policymakers on effective strategies for mitigating the consequences of climate change on water resources and agricultural production in dry regions.

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“…This study found that the quantity of labor and amount of chemicals applied had statistical significance and positively correlated with sugarcane production. In recent studies of Guntukula and Goyari (2020), Pipitpukdee et al (2020), Sarkar et al (2020), andShayanmehr et al (2020) focused on the impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on the productivity of agricultural commodities using the panel data analysis. The findings from these empirical studies confirmed that climatic factors could be one of the most important factors in the efficiency of agricultural production.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors affecting the durian production of farmers in the eastern region of Thailand

et al. 2021

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Thailand is the largest durian producer and exporter in the world market. In addition, durian is the most important fruit crop in Thailand because it can generate a higher income from exports with a value of approximately 45,349-million-baht, equivalent to an export quantity of 653,564 tons in 2019. The objective is to analyze the factors affecting the durian production of farmers in the eastern region of Thailand, namely Chanthaburi, Rayong, and Trad Provinces. The sample of 395 durian farmers underwent observation using simple random sampling via the questionnaire approach. The statistics consisted of mean, percentage, and multiple regression. The findings revealed that the positive factors affecting the durian production of farmers in the eastern region of Thailand are the experience of the farmers in growing durian, the size of the workforce, the planted area of durian, the number of durian trees, and the number of durian trees per planted area, while the negative factors affecting the durian production of farmers in the eastern region of Thailand are the age of the farmers and the cultivation of organic durian. The results will be beneficial to farmers, government, and related stakeholders, who can further apply these findings to enhance the efficiency of durian production to be the quality durian for domestic and foreign consumers

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Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach

Cited by 30 publications

References 55 publications

Multi-Environment Screening of Durum Wheat Genotypes for Drought Tolerance in Changing Climatic Events

Multi-Environment Screening of Durum Wheat Genotypes for Drought Tolerance in Changing Climatic Events

The Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources and Crop Production in an Arid Region

Factors affecting the durian production of farmers in the eastern region of Thailand

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