Drought Characteristics Assessment in Europe over the Past 50 Years

Oikonomou, Panagiotis D.; Karavitis, Christos A.; Tsesmelis, Demetrios E.; Kolokytha, Elpida; Maia, Rodrigo

doi:10.1007/s11269-020-02688-0

Cited by 34 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The novelty of this study is represented by the fact that we make an in-depth analysis of drought frequency and extent for three different drought indices (e.g., SPEI12, SPI12, and scPDSI) covering the 1902-2019 period, and we show that after the 1990s there is a significant divergence between the SPEI/scPDSI and SPI, driven mainly by an increase in the mean air temperature and evapotranspiration. Previous studies have focused either on the analysis of just one drought index (Bonaccorso et al, 2013;Bordi et al, 2009), a shorter time period (Bordi et al, 2009;Hänsel et al, 2019;Oikonomou et al, 2020), or on case studies (Parry et al, 2012). The need for updated studies regarding the trends and changes in drought frequency at the European level is also motivated by the fact that previous studies have indicated that there are no significant changes either in the drought index or in the area affected by drought (Lloyd-Hughes and Saunders, 2002;van der Schrier et al, 2006).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In simple terms, drought is seen as a direct consequence of precipitation deficit (Palmer, 1965); however, drought intensity varies both in time (McKee et al, 1993) and in space (Vicente-Serrano et al, 2010). The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has classified drought in four distinct categories: (i) meteorological drought, defined as a rainfall deficit relative to a climatological norm; (ii) agricultural drought, which is defined relative to the soil water availability during the growing seasons; (iii) hydrological drought, which is associated with low water and groundwater levels and low water supply to the reservoirs; hydrological drought usually follows after many months of meteorological drought; and (iv) socioeconomic drought, which occurs when water shortages start to affect people and the available water supply cannot satisfy the human and environmental water needs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among the available drought indices, the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) are most commonly used. While the PDSI (Palmer, 1965) was successfully used in quantifying drought variability and severity in the United States, it was less successful for other regions (e.g., Australia and South Africa) (Burke et al, 2006;Ntale and Gan, 2003). In this respect, the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) has been developed (Wells et al, 2004), which automatically calibrates the behavior of the index for each location by replacing empirical constants in the index computation with dynamically calculated values.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in drought features at the European level over the last 120 years

Ionita

Nagavciuc

2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In this study we analyze drought features at the European level over the period 1901–2019 using three drought indices: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI). The results based on the SPEI and scPDSI point to the fact that Central Europe (CEU) and the Mediterranean region (MED) are becoming dryer due to an increase in the potential evapotranspiration and mean air temperature, while North Europe (NEU) is becoming wetter. By contrast, the SPI drought does not reveal these changes in the drought variability, mainly due to the fact that the precipitation does not exhibit a significant change, especially over CEU. The SPEI12 indicates a significant increase both in the drought frequency and area over the last three decades for MED and CEU, while SPI12 does not capture these features. Thus, the performance of the SPI may be insufficient for drought analysis studies over regions where there is a strong warming signal. By analyzing the frequency of compound events (e.g., high temperatures and droughts), we show that the potential evapotranspiration and the mean air temperature are becoming essential components for drought occurrence over CEU and MED. This, together with the projected increase in the potential evapotranspiration under a warming climate, has significant implications concerning the future occurrence of drought events, especially for the MED and CEU regions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in drought features at the European level over the last 120 years

Ionita

Nagavciuc

2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Drought frequency is calculated in a five-year time window by splitting the 30-year dataset into six. These periods provide more accuracy and details than longer time resolutions [52]. The drought characteristics are calculated as follows.…”

Section: Drought Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Drought Risk Assessment Considering Resilience and Heterogeneous Vulnerability Factors: Lempa Transboundary River Basin in The Central American Dry Corridor

Khoshnazar

Corzo

Diaz

2021

JMSE

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Drought characterization and risk assessment are of great significance due to drought’s negative impact on human health, economy, and ecosystem. This paper investigates drought characterization and risk assessment in the Lempa River basin in Central America. We applied the Standardized Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (SEDI) for drought characterization and drought hazard index (DHI) calculation. Although SEDI’s applicability is theoretically proven, it has been rarely applied. Drought risk is generally derived from the interactions between drought hazard (DHI) and vulnerability (DVI) indices but neglects resilience’s inherent impact. Accordingly, we propose incorporating DHI, DVI, and drought resilience index (DREI) to calculate drought risk index (DRI). Since system factors are not equally vulnerable, i.e., they are heterogeneous, our methodology applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to find the weights of the selected factors for the DVI computation. Finally, we propose a geometric mean method for DRI calculation. Results show a rise in DHI during 2006–2010 that affected DRI. We depict the applicability of SEDI via its relationship with El Nino-La Nina and El Salvador’s cereal production. This research provides a systematic drought risk assessment approach that is useful for decision-makers to allocate resources more smartly or intervene in Drought Risk Reduction (DRR). This research is also useful for those interested in socioeconomic drought.

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“…R ecent years have seen a rise in heat waves and unprecedented drought conditions in Europe. This has disrupted Europe's agricultural production [1][2][3][4] . According to climate change forecasts, such extreme weather events are likely to increase [5][6][7] .…”

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confidence: 99%

Cross-border climate vulnerabilities of the European Union to drought

Ercin

Veldkamp

Hunink³

2021

Nat Commun

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European Union’s vulnerability to climate change stretches far beyond its borders because many of its economic sectors, such as meat and dairy, use raw materials sourced from far afield. Cross-border climate vulnerability is a relatively new subject in scientific literature, while of high societal and economic relevance. We quantify these climate vulnerabilities with a focus on drought risk and assessed them for 2030, 2050, 2085 and for RCP 2.6 and 6.0 climate scenarios. Here we find that more than 44% of the EU agricultural imports will become highly vulnerable to drought in future because of climate change. The drought severity in production locations of the agricultural imports in 2050 will increase by 35% compared to current levels of drought severity. This is particularly valid for imports that originate from Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, India and Turkey. At the same time, imports from Russia, Nigeria, Peru, Ecuador, Uganda and Kenya will be less vulnerable in future. We also report that the climate vulnerabilities of meat and dairy, chocolate (cocoa), coffee, palm oil-based food and cosmetic sectors mainly lie outside the EU borders rather than inside.

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Drought Characteristics Assessment in Europe over the Past 50 Years

Cited by 34 publications

References 45 publications

Changes in drought features at the European level over the last 120 years

Changes in drought features at the European level over the last 120 years

Spatiotemporal Drought Risk Assessment Considering Resilience and Heterogeneous Vulnerability Factors: Lempa Transboundary River Basin in The Central American Dry Corridor

Cross-border climate vulnerabilities of the European Union to drought

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