Drought assessment and forecasting: A case study on the Yarra River catchment in Victoria, Australia

Barua, S; Ng, A. W. M; Perera, Bjc

doi:10.7158/w10-848.2012.15.2

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…PCA constructs a symmetric correlation matrix (p × p, where p is the number of variables) between the z-score values of the input variables. PCA transform the original p-variables data set to a number of uncorrelated (principal) components z j (1 < j ≤ p) [25] using Equation 8.…”

Section: Aggregate Drought Index (Adi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of the Performance of Six Drought Indices in Characterizing Historical Drought for the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

et al. 2018

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Section: Aggregate Drought Index (Adi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of the Performance of Six Drought Indices in Characterizing Historical Drought for the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

et al. 2018

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“…On the other hand, several studies have been carried out to find the relationship between ENSO events and droughts (Verbist et al, 2010;Meza, 2013;Wang and Kumar, 2015;Zolotokrylin et al, 2016) as it is the main natural dangers affecting agriculture, water resources, ecology, society and hence the economy (Mishra and Singh, 2010;Arndt et al, 2010;Wong et al, 2013;Shiferaw et al, 2014;etc.). Hence, drought early detection helps to implement drought mitigation strategies or tactical adaptations before they occur (Haile, 2005;Barua et al, 2015;Zambrano-Mera et al 2018). For instance, Zhen et al ( 2018) assessed the value of fixed adaptation (no distinction between the years) and tactical adaptations based on pre-sowing plant available water (PAW) and/or SOI forecasts to increase wheat productivity at given sites.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Persistent Cyclical Pattern in the Soi and Eqsoi Series

Gil-Alana

Romero-Rojo

2022

Preprint

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This paper deals with the analysis of the SOI and EQSOI series and their statistical properties, focussing in particular in their cyclical pattern and its persistence across time. For this purpose, we use a long memory model that is characterized because the spectral density function is unbounded at a frequency away from zero. Our results indicate that the two series display a long memory pattern, with the order of integration in the interval (0, 0.5) and the length of the cycles ranging between three and four years.JEL Classification: C00; C02; C22; Q54;

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“…The drought early detection helps to implement drought mitigation strategies and measures before they occur (Barua et al, 2015). Reassignment of water resources in a reasonable way allow mitigate the loss of agricultural products due to the drought (Haile, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking El Niño Southern Oscillation for early drought detection in tropical climates: The Ecuadorian coast

Mera

Vera

Pérez-Martín

2018

Science of The Total Environment

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El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most determining climate pattern in the tropics of the Pacific coast of America that regulate flood and drought periods. Over the last decades, Ecuador has incurred in significant economic losses due to drought events, around 4% of the GDP, mainly in the agricultural and livestock sectors and the hydropower generation. The use of Drought Indicators and the Early Drought Detection can contribute to reduce the impacts of these events. A drought forecasting system, based on ENSO and Drought Indicators, is presented to determine the possibility of appearance of drought events in Manabí River Basin District (MRBD). This system can help to the decision makers, in December (short-term drought, seasonal) and in May (long-term drought, annual), to activate the drought measures in the following months. Six climate indices are used for ENSO: Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for Niño regions: 4, 3.4, 3 and 1 + 2. On the other hand, two drought indices are used: spatially distributed Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) -1, 3, 6 and 12 months-, and a modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), derived from a calibrated water balance model. This system allows early drought detection, assessing SST 1 + 2 (lag -7), 3 (lag -9) and 3.4 (lag -9) anomalies and drought indices, in December for a season drought and May for an annual drought. These analyses demonstrates that, drought may forecasting up to 7-9 months before their occurrence, through SST regions observations, based on strong relationship between ENSO and droughts occurrence.

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Drought assessment and forecasting: A case study on the Yarra River catchment in Victoria, Australia

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Comparison of the Performance of Six Drought Indices in Characterizing Historical Drought for the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Comparison of the Performance of Six Drought Indices in Characterizing Historical Drought for the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

A Persistent Cyclical Pattern in the Soi and Eqsoi Series

Linking El Niño Southern Oscillation for early drought detection in tropical climates: The Ecuadorian coast

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