Drought and Power Production

Palmer, Richard N.; Lund, Jay R.

doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9496(1986)112:4(469)

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Multiple regions over North America exhibit persistent droughts extending over seasons and even across years. Understanding the persistence of droughts is important for sectors ranging from agriculture (Basso and Ritchie, 2014;Lobell et al, 2014) to energy (Hightower and Pierce, 2008;Palmer and Lund, 1986). The likelihoods of drought persistence between the two time periods (1970-2013 versus 1926-1969) are compared using spatial plots of persistence probability ( Figure 4).…”

Section: No Significant Changes In Drought Persistencementioning

confidence: 99%

Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

Ganguli

Ganguly

2016

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

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Understanding droughts in a climate context remains a major challenge. Over the United States, different choices of observations and metrics have often produced diametrically opposite insights. This paper focuses on understanding and characterizing meteorological droughts from station measurements of precipitation. The Standardized Precipitation Index is computed and analyzed to obtain drought severity, duration and frequency. Average drought severity trends are found to be uncertain and data-dependent. Furthermore, the mean and spatial variance do not show any discernible non-stationary behavior. However, the spatial coverage of extreme meteorological droughts in the United States exhibits an increasing trend over nearly all of the last century. Furthermore, the coverage over the last half decade exceeds that of the dust bowl era. Previous literature suggests that climate extremes do not necessarily follow the trends or uncertainties exhibited by the averages. While this possibility has been suggested for droughts, this paper for the first time clearly delineates and differentiates the trends in the mean, variability and extremes of meteorological droughts in the United States, and uncovers the trends in the spatial coverage of extremes. Multiple data sets, as well as years exhibiting large, and possibly anomalous, droughts are carefully examined to characterize trends and uncertainties. Nonlinear dependence among meteorological drought attributes necessitates the use of copula-based tools from probability theory. Severity-duration-frequency curves are generated to demonstrate how these insights may be translated to design and policy. 3

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Section: No Significant Changes In Drought Persistencementioning

confidence: 99%

Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

Ganguli

Ganguly

2016

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

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“…Droughts-induced 17 , 18 water scarcity and heat-waves driven warm water have already impacted power productions in the several parts of US, including Texas 18 , 19 and California 20 . Future thermoelectric power production will depend on the availability of sufficient water resources, which will directly be impacted under climate change 6 , 13 , 21 – 27 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

US Power Production at Risk from Water Stress in a Changing Climate

Ganguli

Kumar

Ganguly

2017

Sci Rep

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Thermoelectric power production in the United States primarily relies on wet-cooled plants, which in turn require water below prescribed design temperatures, both for cooling and operational efficiency. Thus, power production in US remains particularly vulnerable to water scarcity and rising stream temperatures under climate change and variability. Previous studies on the climate-water-energy nexus have primarily focused on mid- to end-century horizons and have not considered the full range of uncertainty in climate projections. Technology managers and energy policy makers are increasingly interested in the decadal time scales to understand adaptation challenges and investment strategies. Here we develop a new approach that relies on a novel multivariate water stress index, which considers the joint probability of warmer and scarcer water, and computes uncertainties arising from climate model imperfections and intrinsic variability. Our assessments over contiguous US suggest consistent increase in water stress for power production with about 27% of the production severely impacted by 2030s.

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“…The management of water resources and namely the hydro generation is strongly affected by extreme drought [17,18]. The analysis of very low river flows used in the calculation of available hydro energy can be overturned by events with very low occurrence frequency.…”

Section: Unpredictability and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Establishing Legal <i>Force Majeure</i> Case for the Interruption of Hydro Energy Supply Related to an Extreme Hydrological Drought Event

Roman¹,

Bucur²,

Dunca³

2021

IJEMA

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The management of water resources and specifically the energy supply from hydropower systems are strongly affected by drought events. This paper is devoted to the unfolding of legal consequences caused by an extreme hydrological drought event. The legal litigation occurred when -due to a severe deficit of water -the hydropower company that manages the hydro energy resources over the entire territory of Romania was unable to deliver the amount of electricity stipulated in the power purchase agreements. The studypresents an extensive statistical analysis of extreme hydrological drought events occurrence, using the threshold level method. The statistical analysis was applied on large historical records of the flow rates (50-90 years) and revealed the occurrence of extreme drought events, i.e. extremely low occurrence frequency phenomena. The characteristics of the historical data were studied to highlight the area where the forecast normally used in the hydro generation planning is not possible. In order to evaluate the occurrence of extreme drought phenomena, the natural monthly and annually flows of the Danube and other seven major interior rivers in Romania (Argeș, Bistrița, Olt, Lotru, Sebeș, Someș, Siret and Raul Mare) were analyzed, reflecting fairly a general picture of the flow distribution on the entire territory. The analyzed cases refer to periods when -due to a severe deficit of water -the Romanian hydropower company was unable to generate electricity according to the power purchase agreements (PPA). The results of the statistical analysis were further used as the base for the legal cases that confirmed the force majeure situations claimed by the hydropower company.

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Drought and Power Production

Cited by 11 publications

References 8 publications

Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

US Power Production at Risk from Water Stress in a Changing Climate

Establishing Legal <i>Force Majeure</i> Case for the Interruption of Hydro Energy Supply Related to an Extreme Hydrological Drought Event

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Drought and Power Production

Cited by 11 publications

References 8 publications

Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

US Power Production at Risk from Water Stress in a Changing Climate

Establishing Legal &lt;i&gt;Force Majeure&lt;/i&gt; Case for the Interruption of Hydro Energy Supply Related to an Extreme Hydrological Drought Event

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Establishing Legal <i>Force Majeure</i> Case for the Interruption of Hydro Energy Supply Related to an Extreme Hydrological Drought Event