Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain

Abstract

The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain's power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days (p99), almost 50% (7GW e) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from £29-66m.yr-1 GBP2018, whilst in 20% of cases from £66-95m.yr-1. With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds £100m.yr-1. The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >£200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1 storder economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts.

The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO2 Emissions

“…Since teleconnections represent one of the physical mechanisms upon which seasonal hydrometeorological forecasts are issued, verifying the hypothesis would allow us to predict grid operations and design contingency measures. Finally, the existing literature on coupled water‐power system models is biased toward developed countries (Byers et al., 2020; Kern & Characklis, 2017; O'Connell et al., 2019; Su et al., 2017), and thus overlooks large regions where electricity infrastructures have, and will, experience a tumultuous growth (Shearer et al., 2017; Wang et al., 2019; Zarfl et al., 2015)—possibly exacerbating the conflict with other water users (Satoh et al., 2017). How these fast‐growing systems respond to hydroclimatic variability remains an open question.…”

Optimum Scheduling the Electric Distribution Substations with a Case Study: An Integer Gaining-Sharing Knowledge-Based Metaheuristic Algorithm

“…Ignoring effective designs of buildings and the lack of "time-of-use" of electric power contribute about 80 percent of used electricity for air conditioning and cooling. And then, as demand is at its highest, electricity shortages become acute during the summer season [6].…”

“…, NOP) is the corresponding objective function values. e initial population is generated as 6 Complexity…”

An Integrated Framework for Risk‐Based Analysis of Economic Impacts of Drought and Water Scarcity in England and Wales

“…Whilst the UK is not conventionally regarded as a water-scarce country, a combination of socio-economic and hydrological conditions mean that drought and related water scarcity pose a substantial threat to the environment, economy and society, with the water supply system already considered to be under strain. Water scarcity can directly impact on agricultural production; reduce river flows for water-cooled thermoelectric power generation (Byers et al, 2014(Byers et al, , 2016(Byers et al, , 2020; and reduce water availability at abstraction points used by industry, affecting industrial production (AECOM, 2016). Over the last 40 years several droughts have brought water use restrictions for households and businesses (Water UK, 2016).…”