Droht eine Immobilienpreisblase in Deutschland?

Abstract

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Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany

“…Kajuth et al (2013) find that for most analyzed regions, house prices reflect quite well the economic conditions. However, in metropolitan areas, a substantial overvaluation by up to 25% is detected, which stands in some contrast to the findings of an de Meulen and Micheli (2013). One explanation might be the quite short period of observation.…”

“…The second study, by an de Meulen and Micheli (2013), picks up the spatial dimension of Germany's housing market. The authors analyze monthly data of metropolitan house prices from 2008m1 through 2013m1.…”

Assessing house prices in Germany: evidence from a regional data set

“…With a view to the related literature, the assessment of residential property prices in Germany based on the panel data model more or less confirms the findings of other recent studies of the German housing market. According to results based on time-series methods, for example, univariate tests for explosive behaviour in residential property prices or error correction models (An de Meulen and Micheli, 2013; Chen and Funke, 2013; European Central Bank, 2015a, 2015b; Kholodilin et al , 2014), and cross-sectional analyses (Kholodilin and Ulbricht, 2015), signs of overvaluations are found in the larger German cities, whereas the whole-country average does not exhibit substantial overvaluations of residential property.…”

“…Univariate time-series analyses of the German housing market, including the recent price increases, find evidence of explosive, i.e. bubble-like behaviour, in some big German cities but not in the whole market (An de Meulen and Micheli, 2013; Chen and Funke, 2013). Multivariate time-series regression models of German house prices often yield imprecisely estimated coefficients of explanatory variables, such as income or unemployment (Catte et al , 2004; Igan and Loungani, 2012), because of the low frequency of annual observations and the relatively short time span covered.…”

Real estate data for Germany (RWI-GEO-RED)

“…Afterwards prices started to rise and there is a societal and political discussion on price bubbles in Germany (e. g. Kajuth et al, 2013;Kholodilin et al, 2018). Although, price developments are very heterogeneous regarding German regions and neighborhoods (e. g. Klick and Schaffner, 2019a), evidence on the existence of price bubbles in Germany is mixed (e. g. Kholodilin et al, 2018;an de Meulen and Micheli, 2013).…”