Driving Mechanisms of Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of Land Use Conflicts and Simulation under Multiple Scenarios in Dongting Lake Area

Abstract

As an important ecological hinterland in Hunan Province, the Dongting Lake area has an irreplaceable role in regional socioeconomic development. However, owing to rapid environmental changes and complex land use relationships, land use/land cover (LULC) changes are actively occurring in the region. Therefore, assessment of the current LULC status and the future development trend for sustainable economic development is of considerable importance. In this study, the driving mechanisms of spatiotemporal evolution for land use conflicts (LUCF) in Dongting Lake from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed by constructing a LUCF model. Additionally, a new model, EnKF-PLUS, which couples ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) with patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS), was developed to predict the LULC changes and LUCF in 2030 under different scenarios. The results provide three insights. First, during the period of 2000–2020, high LUCF values were concentrated in highly urbanized and densely populated areas, whereas low LUCF values were centered in hilly regions. Secondly, the impacts of static factors (topographical factors) and dynamic factors (population, GDP, and climate factors) on changes in LUCF were regionally differentiated. Thirdly, our results indicate that the implementation of land use strategies of cropland conservation and ecological conservation can effectively mitigate the degree of LUCF changes in the region and contribute to the promotion of the rational allocation of land resources.