Drivers of regional crop variability in Chad

Nilsson, Erik; Uvo, Cíntia Bertacchi; Becker, Per; Persson, Magnus

doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2019.104081

Cited by 2 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…The study is based on a set of case examples from Chad, where the effects of demographic variables, international aid, food security reports, and soil moisture on long-term changes in subnational cereal production for 1990-2016 are assessed. The focus is on the differences in production trajectories between the administrative regions in Chad over this time period, and complements a recent study (Nilsson et al 2019) which addressed the drivers of interannual variability in crop production for the same areas and time period. Due to the general lack of previous studies with this focus, and as most of the employed datasets have not been combined on a regional level of analysis in Chad before, assessing their combined explanatory capacity is of relevance for evaluative and predictive purposes in the agricultural sector.…”

Section: Communicated By Chinwe Ifejika Speranzamentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Agricultural Systems In Chadmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, there are pronounced interannual variabilities in the agricultural sector, which despite their fundamental influence on food security generally are not well understood (Nilsson et al 2019). Due to dry growing conditions across the ecological zones in Chad, high ratio of rainfed farming, and varying hydrological conditions, soil water availability is bound to be a key factor behind these interannual variabilities (FEWS NET 2011;Nilsson et al 2019;Republic of Chad 2009). While this warrants an evaluation of the role of soil water availability in long-term changes to agricultural output, the substantial increase in agricultural output seen in all regions in Chad over the past three decades indicate a strong influence of anthropogenic drivers (Nilsson and Uvo 2018).…”

Section: Agricultural Systems In Chadmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To estimate the effect of changes in soil water availability, yield reduction factors based on rainfall, soil water holding capacity, wind conditions, evaporative demand, and crop water uptake were calculated for the respective regions and crops (Allen et al 1998;Doorenbos and Kassam 1979;Steduto et al 2012). This study used the yield reduction factors in Chad described and calculated by Nilsson et al (2019), who analyzed the role of crop water availability to the interannual variability in crop production for the same areas and time period that this study covers. The effects of changes in soil water availability on the agricultural trend level (ΔAgr soil water ) at a specified year, t, were estimated according to Eq.…”

Section: Soil Moisturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Information on livelihood conditions for each growing season were taken from FEWSNET's food security reports, starting from 2000 (FEWS NET 2018b). Data were extracted on a trimonthly basis for 2000-2016 and categorized by topics, growing season, and location (see Nilsson et al 2019). For the Lac region, the FEWSNET reports were complemented by the annual reports from the Société de Développement du Lac (SODELAC 2014).…”

Section: Livelihood Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drivers of abrupt and gradual changes in agricultural systems in Chad

2020

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The countries in the Sahel are undergoing rapid changes due to a mixture of demographic, ecological, and economic transformations. Rural livelihoods in these countries are predominantly engaged in agriculture, which is a foundational component of both food security and the general economy. The relationships between ongoing socio-economic transformation and the agricultural sector are clearly important to address poverty and sustainable development, but have received little academic attention on a subnational level of analysis. This paper addresses this by bringing together new datasets on demography, international aid, food security reports, and soil moisture to analyze the drivers of change in the agricultural sector on a subnational level in Chad. Both regression analyses and qualitative methods based on descriptions in food security reports are used to evaluate the relationships between these datasets to agricultural statistics for the period 1990–2016. It finds that changes to crop water availability from rainfall largely are decoupled from the long-term increases in crop production. On the other hand, it shows that population changes and international aid can explain differences in long-term agricultural changes between Chad’s regions. Moreover, stochastic factors such as farm support programs, market prices, access to new markets, and accommodation of refugees are identified as important to grasp abrupt changes in the crop production. Beyond the specific findings for Chad, this study presents a framework for improved evaluation of the drivers behind subnational crop production on multi-annual and decadal time scales, with broad applicability to agricultural systems in the Sahel.

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Section: Communicated By Chinwe Ifejika Speranzamentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Agricultural Systems In Chadmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Agricultural Systems In Chadmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Soil Moisturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Livelihood Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drivers of abrupt and gradual changes in agricultural systems in Chad

2020

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Temporal trends of food insecurity in Chad, 2016–2021

Kang,

Wabyona,

Etienne

et al. 2023

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.

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IntroductionConsidering persistently high levels of poverty and food insecurity in Chad, this study examines food insecurity trends from 2016 to 2021 and identifies risk factors for food insecurity in 2020 and 2021.MethodsData from six cross-sectional Enquête Nationale sur la Securité Alimentaire (ENSA) surveys from 2016 to 2021 collected in rural areas were used. The linear regressions for food consumption score (FCS), reduced coping strategy index (rCSI), and livelihood coping strategy index (LCSI) and logistic regressions for “poor food consumption” were used to estimate the annual rate of change. Risk factor analysis was conducted with demographic, socio-economic, and pandemic-related economic indicators in univariate models, and subsequent multivariate models were used to produce adjusted odds ratios.ResultsAt a national level, there was a gradual decrease in FCS (1.16 points per year), an increase in LCSI (0.11 points), and an increase in the proportion of households with poor food consumption from 18.5% to 25.3% (1.55 percentage point) during 2016–2021; a similar trend for FCS and LCSI for worsened food insecurity was observed in the Sudanian zone. There was no significant change in rCSI during that time at the national level, but there was a reduction in the Saharan zone and an increasing trend in the Sahélian zone. Risk factors for poor food consumption in 2020–2021 included lower wealth status, a single income source, an illiterate household head, and Sahelian zone residence. The only characteristic significantly associated with increased coping mechanism use in both years was having a disabled household head.DiscussionThe results provide evidence of worsening food security in Chad in the past 6 years, both nationally and including the agricultural Sudanian zone. Food insecurity was consistently the highest in the Sahelian zone. While some risk factors for poor food consumption and diet-related coping mechanism use were consistent between 2020 and 2021, there were differences among other risk factors, likely a reflection of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. A strategic shift in humanitarian and development programming is required to mitigate the rise in food insecurity at the national and regional levels, with a particular emphasis on the Sahelian zone.

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Drivers of regional crop variability in Chad

Cited by 2 publications

References 28 publications

Drivers of abrupt and gradual changes in agricultural systems in Chad

Drivers of abrupt and gradual changes in agricultural systems in Chad

Temporal trends of food insecurity in Chad, 2016–2021

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