“…We built on the Coast Guard's rich history of using drivers as an approach for compiling and sorting information about what will shape operations in the future. First, we conducted a rigorous review, driven by subject-matter expertise in our team, of the application of drivers-of-change 15 The general idea for organizing concepts of change around drivers is commonly used in a variety of disciplines, including the applied and natural sciences (see, for example, Bulleri andChapman, 2010, andCloern andJassby, 2012), business strategy and corporate consulting (see, for example, Kirsch, Chelliah, andParry, 2011, andArup Foresight, 2018), and security analysis (see, for example, U.S. Marine Corps, 2015, and approaches in other academic disciplines, business areas, and government offices. This review enabled the conceptual outline for the stressors-and-shocks framework, offered a starting point for a list of relevant drivers and types of operating environment impacts, and confirmed a lack of clearly more-suitable alternative frameworks.…”