Drivers and triggers of international food price spikes and volatility

Abstract

Journal articleIFPRI3; ISIESAOP

Volatile and Extreme Food Prices, Food Security, and Policy: An Overview

“…The so-called "financialization" hypothesis claims that volatile liquidity flows and rebalancing of portfolios have caused commodity markets to be more exposed to shocks and price movements at other financial markets (Basak und Pavlova 2014). Holding grains for financial portfolio diversification may not necessarily increase grain price volatility (Vercammen and Doroudian 2014), and empirical studies have yet to reach a consensus about the impacts of speculation and financialization on volatility (Brunetti et al 2011;Irwin and Sanders 2012;Tadesse et al 2014); however, some studies have found indications of volatility transmission (Tang und Xiong 2012). While this debate continues, it is important to note that futures markets (that involve also the participation of risk-loving speculators as contracting party to risk-averse hedgers) are crucial to coordinate supply and demand over time.…”

Volatile Volatility: Conceptual and Measurement Issues Related to Price Trends and Volatility

“…If we accept the argument that both the variability of a trend and the variability around the trend need to be considered, then it is crucial to identify methods of decomposing price movements into trend variability (explained by long-term factors), variability around the trend (partially related to the business cycle), and shorter-term variability that lies beyond both trends and cycles (which may include extreme events such as spikes or crashes) (see Díaz-Bonilla and Ron 2010; Tadesse et al 2014). The best methods of separating trends and cycles have been long debated in applied macro-econometrics, with different approaches leading to different results about such decomposition (see, for instance, Canova 1998Canova , 1999Canova , 2007.…”

“…However, as before, such decomposition of the three aspects (trends, cycles and shorter-term variations) faces the problem of how to differentiate them. Figure 2.9 presents a possible decomposition using the HP filter (for another approach to the decomposition, see Tadesse et al 2014).…”

Implicaciones de la disminución de la capacidad productiva de granos básicos sobre la alimentación en comunidades rurales pobres de México

“…Entre estos últimos se incluyen aquellos que producen alimentos básicos y en los que la agricultura es una ocupación importante, y más aún cuando los precios internacionales se transmiten a los mercados nacionales (Tadesse et al, 2014;PR, 2014;FAO, 2008;Minot, 2014).…”