Drama theory and its relation to game theory. Part 1: Dramatic resolution vs. Rational solution

Abstract

Drama theory differs from game theory in that it does not regard actors' preferences and perceived opportunities as fixed, but as capable of being changed by the actors themselves under the pressure of pre-play negotiations. Thus characters in a drama undergo change and development. A manyperson, multiphase theory of dramatic transformation is presented, showing how the core of a drama (in the sense of game theory) is transformed by the interaction between the characters into a strict, strong equilibrium to which they all aspire. The process of dramatic transformation is shown to be driven by actors' reactions to various "paradoxes of rationality"; it is proved that when all these paradoxes have been overcome, a full dramatic resolution has been reached, satisfying actors' emotional and moral demands, as well as the demands of rationality.

Advances in Drama Theory for Managing Global Hazards and Disasters. Part I: Theoretical Foundation

“…Both drama theory (Howard, 1994a(Howard, ,b, 1999(Howard, , 1989 and conflict analysis (Fraser and Hipel 1984;Fang et al 1993) developed from common roots in metagame analysis, as set out in Howard's 1971 book Paradoxes of Rationality (Howard 1971), now back in print as an MIT classic. Consequently they share three important similarities that help to make multiple-participant decision analysis more relevant and applicable to real-world problems.…”

“…static beliefs and preferences) of traditional game theory (Howard 1994a(Howard ,b, 1998(Howard , 1999(Howard , 2000Howard et al 1992). Over the past 60 years, game theory has been widely used to analyze national defense problems and environmental catastrophes from nuclear deterrence to analyzing terrorist protection strategies (for an overview of game theory see Osborne and Rubinstein 1994).…”

Advances in Drama Theory for Managing Global Hazards and Disasters. Part II: Coping with Global Climate Change and Environmental Catastrophe

“…Option board diagrams were obtained using Windows Paint TM to adjust output from Confrontation Manager TM . This work could not have been possible without the tireless encouragement from Nigel Howard, who pioneered metagame analysis (Howard 1971) and drama theory (Howard et al 1992;Howard 1994aHoward ,b, 1998Howard , 1999Howard , 2000. Our climate change model contains three actual decision makers, namely Western nations (W), Environmental/Scientific groups (E/S), and Emerging economies (EE), and one "fictitious" party called Assumptions ( A), which is used to attach consequences (here, "catastrophic climate change" and "converging per-capita emissions") to the intentions or positions of all parties.…”

Drama theory and its relation to game theory. Part 2: Formal model of the resolution process

“…(D41) An example to illustrate this was given in part 1 (Howard 1994) where we discussed a simplified model of the conflict in Bosnia. In that model, the Western alliance had adopted an unrealistic position in demanding that Serbia leave Bosnia.…”

“…Part 1 of this article (Howard 1994) gave a general outline and discussion of drama theory, together with an applied example. This second part gives a formal model and a more detailed, formal discussion of the dramatic resolution process.…”