Downstream oil supply security in China: Policy implications from quantifying the impact of oil import disruption

Yuan, Meng; Qiu, Rui; Wang, Bohong; Huang, Liqiao; Fang, Kai; Liang, Yongtu

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111077

Cited by 47 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…As shown above (1) salt rock exhibits obviously nonlinear deformation characteristics during the creep process; the larger the axial stress and the longer the creep time, the more obvious the nonlinear deformation characteristics; (2) when the axial stress is lower than 14 MPa, the elastic modulus E of salt rock does not change with the increase in stress level and the extension of creep time. On the contrary, the elastic modulus E decreases gradually with the increase in stress level and the extension of creep time [121].…”

Section: Component Combination Modelmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Dashpot. Wu et al [41] suggested that when the value range of derivative order c belongs to [1,2], the constant coefficient Abel dashpot is converted to a generalized Abel dashpot that can be used to describe the creep behavior of rock between Newton fluid and nonlinear fluid. And then, combining elastic element, constant coefficient Abel dashpot, and generalized Abel dashpot in series, the creep constitutive model of salt rock based on fractional derivatives theory can be obtained (as shown in Figure 13(a)).…”

Section: Adjust the Value Range Of Derivative Order β In Abelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Statistics show that China has become the world's largest oil importer since 2018, and the oil dependence on imports has reached 72% in 2019. Due to the tension in the current international situation, especially international trade disputes and the political instability in oil exporting countries become increasingly pronounced, the oil supply disruption is inevitable [2]. Once the oil imports are blocked, it will seriously affect the politics, military, economy, and social stability of China [34].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Creep Properties and Constitutive Model of Salt Rock

Zhang

Song

Wang

et al. 2021

Advances in Civil Engineering

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Due to the advantages of low porosity, low permeability, high ductility, and excellent capacities for creep and damage self-healing, salt rock is internationally considered as the ideal medium for underground storage of energy and disposal of radioactive waste. As one of the most important mechanical properties of salt rock, creep properties are closely related to the long-term operation stability and safety of salt rock underground storage cavern. A comprehensive review on the creep properties and constitutive model of salt rock is put forward in this paper. The opinions and suggestions on the research priority and direction of salt rock's mechanical properties in the future are put forward: (1) permeability variation of salt rock under the coupling effect of temperature and stress; (2) damage mechanism and evolution process under the effect of creep-fatigue interaction and low frequency cyclic loading; (3) microdeformation mechanisms of salt rock and the relationship between microstructure variations and macrocreep behavior during creep process; (4) the establishment of the creep damage constitutive model with simple form, less parameters, easy application, and considering the damage self-healing ability of salt rock simultaneously.

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Section: Component Combination Modelmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Adjust the Value Range Of Derivative Order β In Abelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Creep Properties and Constitutive Model of Salt Rock

Zhang

Song

Wang

et al. 2021

Advances in Civil Engineering

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“…The energy insecurity resulting from international conflicts could damage China's economic growth by reducing its consumption, investment and total exports [36,40,66]. First, energy supply shortages and price fluctuations could severely disrupt the activity of Chinese enterprises, leading in turn to employment and labor income reductions [67,68], thus reducing public disposable income levels, causing decreased consumption [40,69]. Second, the sharp rises in energy prices would increase enterprise production costs and lower investment return rates, which, in turn, would reduce the total investment [70].…”

Section: Diagnosing the Impact Mechanismsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fluctuations in energy prices and unstable energy supply could also erode investor confidence, leading to further reductions in investment [71][72][73]. Third, oil supply shortages indirectly reduce the output of the downstream sectors in the energy supply chain, such as construction and heavy manufacturing [69,74], while rising energy prices worsen China's terms of trade and reduce the competitiveness in the global market, decreasing China's total exports [75,76]. Therefore, international conflicts have the potential to eventually damage Chinese economic growth by affecting its energy security.…”

Section: Diagnosing the Impact Mechanismsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Do International Conflicts Impact China’s Energy Security and Economic Growth? A Case Study of the US Economic Sanctions on Iran

Cui

2021

Sustainability

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International conflicts cause global energy price fluctuations and supply disruptions, which can threaten energy security and economic growth in energy-importing countries, including China. However, the implications and impact mechanisms of international conflicts on the energy security and economy of oil-importing countries have been poorly explored. Using US economic sanctions on Iran as a case, a global energy-extended computable general equilibrium model, GTAP-E, is employed to assess the impacts of international conflicts on China’s energy production, trade and supply, sectoral outputs, and economic growth. The results indicate that the USA–Iran tension would threaten China’s energy security, mainly due to the instability of the energy supply and the consequent upsurge of energy prices. However, if increased oil exports from other Persian Gulf countries compensate for the global oil supply shortages, China’s energy supply would be generally assured. Moreover, because of the close energy cooperation links between Iran and China, the sanctions could decrease the Chinese outputs of non-energy sectors and economic growth. Nevertheless, compared with sole-sanction situations, the results from a possible USA–Iran tension escalation, going as far as Iran’s closure of the Hormuz Strait, could pose a more serious risk to China’s energy security and economic growth.

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The Optimization for Natural Gas Supply Chain Under Multi-source Pattern

Liang

Duan

et al. 2021

Computational and Experimental Simulations in Engineering

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Downstream oil supply security in China: Policy implications from quantifying the impact of oil import disruption

Cited by 47 publications

References 36 publications

Creep Properties and Constitutive Model of Salt Rock

Creep Properties and Constitutive Model of Salt Rock

How Do International Conflicts Impact China’s Energy Security and Economic Growth? A Case Study of the US Economic Sanctions on Iran

The Optimization for Natural Gas Supply Chain Under Multi-source Pattern

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