Downscaling of Short-Term Precipitation from Regional Climate Models for Sustainable Urban Planning

Olsson, Jonas; Gidhagen, Lars; Gamerith, Valentin; Gruber, Günter; Hoppe, Holger; Kutschera, Peter

doi:10.3390/su4050866

Cited by 19 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…For instance, statistical downscaling using neural net methods exhibited limited success with rainfall intensity, even when attempting to estimate depth per 6 h period (Kumar et al ., ). Likewise, in the context of climatic change, downscaling from regional climate models faces the challenge of how to correctly model the distribution of rain and dry periods, a problem that is of particular significance for urban runoff modelling (Olsson et al ., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Intra‐event intermittency of rainfall: an analysis of the metrics of rain and no‐rain periods

Dunkerley

2015

Hydrological Processes

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Abstract:The metric or 'observable' properties of intra-event rainfall intermittency (IERI) are quantified using a 10-year record from arid Fowlers Gap, Australia. Rainfall events were delineated using the minimum inter-event time (MIT) criterion, using eight values in the range of 1 h -24 h. Within events, no-rain periods were defined as corresponding to rainfall rates R < 0.1 mm/h or R < 0.2 mm/h (both less than typical wet-canopy evaporation rates during rainfall). In this way, rainfall events were subdivided into rain and no-rain periods. Intermittency was characterised using two measures: the fraction of rainless time within an event, and the duration of the longest rainless period. Events identified using a minimum inter-event time (MIT) of 24 h included on average 9.4 h of contiguous no-rain time (47.5% of the mean event duration), and only 6.8 h of contiguous rain. Total IERI averaged 51.1% for these events. Events defined with MIT = 6 h (a value commonly adopted in the literature) exhibited a mean of 1.53 h of no-rain and 9.04 h of contiguous rain. Total IERI averaged 13.9% for these events for R < 0.1 mm/h, but reached 39.2% if no-rain periods were taken as those of <0.2 mm/h. The maximum contiguous no-rain period for events defined using MIT = 6 h was 10.9 h from an event of 12.6 h duration, and this represents 86.5% of the event duration. Results demonstrate that smaller, shorter, and less intense rainfall events tend to exhibit higher IERI than larger, longer, and more intense events. IERI is relevant to the understanding of land surface processes. Information on the metric properties of IERI in different rainfall types (convective and stratiform) and rainfall climates (arid, maritime, and wet tropical) may prove to have significance for diverse studies in land surface hydrology.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Intra‐event intermittency of rainfall: an analysis of the metrics of rain and no‐rain periods

Dunkerley

2015

Hydrological Processes

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“…The future projections span from 2011 until the year of 2100, but for this study, only the projections for the end of the 21 st century (2071 -2100) were selected. The rainfall records were rescaled using the delta change method as described in Olsson et al (2012).…”

Section: Historical Climate Data and Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the effects of changes in rainfall event characteristics on TSS loads in urban runoff

Borris

Viklander

Gustafsson

et al. 2013

Hydrological Processes

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The effect of changes in rainfall event characteristics on urban stormwater quality, which was described by total suspended solids (TSS), was studied by means of computer simulations conducted with the Storm Water Management Model for a climate change scenario for northern Sweden. The simulation results showed that TSS event loads depended mainly on rainfall depth and intensity, but not on antecedent conditions. Storms with low‐to‐intermediate depths and intensities showed the highest sensitivity to changes in rainfall input, both for percentage and absolute changes in TSS wash‐off loads, which was explained by the contribution of pervious areas and supply limitations. This has significant implications for stormwater management, because those relatively frequent events generally carry a high percentage of the annual pollutant load. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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“…However, only a few methods have been applied at sub-daily precipitation scales (e.g. Onof and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, 2009;Willems and Vrac, 2011;Olsson et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods to estimate changes in hourly extreme precipitation using RCM projections from ENSEMBLES

et al. 2014

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Changes in extreme precipitation are expected to be one of the most important impacts of climate change in cities. Urban floods are mainly caused by short duration extreme events. Hence, robust information on changes in extreme precipitation at high-temporal resolution is required for the design of climate change adaptation measures. However, the quantification of these changes is challenging and subject to numerous uncertainties.This study assesses the changes and uncertainties in extreme precipitation at hourly scale over Denmark. It explores three statistical downscaling approaches: a delta change method for extreme events, a weather generator combined with a disaggregation method and a climate analogue method. All three methods rely on different assumptions and use different outputs from the regional climate models (RCMs). The results of the three methods point towards an increase in extreme precipitation but the magnitude of the change varies depending on the RCM used and the spatial location. In general, a similar mean change is obtained for the three methods. This adds confidence in the results as each method uses different information from the RCMs. The results of this study highlight the need of using a range of statistical downscaling methods as well as RCMs to assess changes in extreme precipitation.

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Downscaling of Short-Term Precipitation from Regional Climate Models for Sustainable Urban Planning

Cited by 19 publications

References 18 publications

Intra‐event intermittency of rainfall: an analysis of the metrics of rain and no‐rain periods

Intra‐event intermittency of rainfall: an analysis of the metrics of rain and no‐rain periods

Modelling the effects of changes in rainfall event characteristics on TSS loads in urban runoff

Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods to estimate changes in hourly extreme precipitation using RCM projections from ENSEMBLES

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