Downscaling Monthly Forecasts to Simulate Impacts of Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Wheat Production

Zhang, X.-C.; Nearing, M. A.; Garbrecht, Jürgen; Steiner, Jean L.

doi:10.2136/sssaj2004.1376

Cited by 97 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 14 publications

(2 reference statements)

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“…One family of downscaling methods involves a statistical approach of applying smaller-scale climatic observations to bias-correct the larger-scale GCM data [7,10,11]. Stochastic weather generators can be used to generate numerous instances of future daily climate variables by adjusting historical weather patterns based on GCM projections for mid-21st or late-21st century periods [11][12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A number of studies have simulated hydrologic responses in watersheds around the world as a result of weather predictions by GCMs [15][16][17] or shifts in seasonal precipitation and temperature [13,16,18,19]. The increased temperature and changing patterns in precipitation intensity, duration, and timing can substantially affect streamflow, groundwater recharge, crop yields, and other environmental variables in the future [20,21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrologic Alterations Predicted by Seasonally-Consistent Subset Ensembles of General Circulation Models

Sheshukov

Douglas-Mankin

2017

Climate

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Future climate forcing data at the temporal and spatial scales needed to drive hydrologic models are not readily available. Simple methods to derive these data from historical data or General Circulation Model (GCM) results may not adequately capture future hydrological variability. This study assessed streamflow response to daily future climate forcing data produced by a new method using subsets of multi-model GCM ensembles for the mid-21st century period in northeast Kansas. Daily timeseries of precipitation and temperature were developed for six future climate scenarios: stationary, uniform 10% changes in precipitation; shifts based on a 15-GCM ensemble-mean; and shifts based on three seasonally-consistent subsets of GCMs representing Spring-Summer combinations that were wetter or drier than the historical period. The analysis of daily streamflow and hydrologic index statistics were conducted. Stationary 10% precipitation shifts generally bounded the monthly mean streamflow projections of the other scenarios, and the 15-GCM ensemble-mean captured non-stationary effects of annual and seasonal hydrological response, but did not identify important intra-annual shifts in drought and flood characteristics. The seasonally-consistent subset ensembles produced a range of distinct monthly streamflow trends, particularly for extreme low-flow and high-flow events. Meaningful water management and planning for the future will require hydrological impact simulations that reflect the range of possible future climates. Use of GCM ensemble-mean climate forcing data without consideration of the range of seasonal patterns among models was demonstrated to remove important seasonal hydrologic patterns that were retained in the subset ensemble-mean approach.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic Alterations Predicted by Seasonally-Consistent Subset Ensembles of General Circulation Models

Sheshukov

Douglas-Mankin

2017

Climate

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“…A estimativa da erosão hídrica é essencial para o monitoramento de práticas agrícolas, pois o tipo de manejo do solo pode afetar o escoamento superficial e o aporte de sedimentos (Zhang et al, 2004), o qual depende do tamanho, densidade e distribuição de diâmetro das partículas e agregados produzidos e, consequentemente, das características do solo (Foster et al, 1985). O tipo de cultura e a forma de semeadura também influenciam na quantidade de sedimentos na enxurrada (Quinton & Catt, 2004;Barbosa et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Produção de sedimentos pela erosão em entressulcos em três Latossolos do Rio Grande do Sul

Nunes

Cassol

2011

Rev. bras. eng. agríc. ambient.

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. As amostras do sedimento foram coletadas em um conjunto de peneiras. A distribuição de diâmetro dos sedimentos variou conforme a textura do solo e os sedimentos produzidos apresentaram partículas e agregados de menor diâmetro que os do solo original. A maior parte dos sedimentos aportados no LVdf pertence à classe de 9,51 a 4,76 mm, enquanto no LVaf a classe predominante é a de 4,76 a 2,00 mm, os quais são os solos com maior teor de argila, carbono orgânico e óxidos de ferro e maior estabilidade de agregados em água. O Latossolo com menor estabilidade de agregados em água (LVd) foi o que apresentou sedimentos de tamanho menor (1,00 a 0,25 mm). Palavras-chave: distribuição de tamanho, agregados, diâmetro de partículas, chuva simuladaInterrill soil erosion sediment yield on three Oxisols from Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil ABSTRACT The sediment particle size distribution depends on soil type and texture. This study had the objective to evaluate the sediment yield by interrill soil erosion in three Oxisols of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil: Rhodic Hapludox (LVaf and LVdf) and a Typic Hapludox (LVd), of different textural classes, by simulated rainfall events in laboratory. Experimental plot with test area of 0.36 m 2 and 0.09 m m -1 slope was used. Simulated rainfall with mean intensity of 88 mm h -1 and duration of 90 min was applied in three replications on three oxisols. Sediment particles leaving the experimental plots were collected in a set of sieves. The distribution of sediment diameter varied as the soil texture. The sediment yielded by interrill soil erosion had individual particles and aggregates smaller than those in the original soil. Most of the sediment yielded by interrill soil erosion at LVdf soil was in the class diameter from 9.51 to 4.76 mm whereas in LVaf was from 4.76 to 2.00 mm and in LVd was from 1.00 to 0.25 mm. The original LVdf and LVaf soils present higher clay, organic carbon and iron oxides contents and greater aggregate water stability than the LVd soil, and this probably explains the differences among size classes of sediment yielded by interrill soil erosion.

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“…Há evidências de que o aumento da cobertura vegetal reduz as vazões (Diaz & Querner, 2005) e que o tipo de manejo do solo pode afetar o escoamento e o aporte de sedimento em bacias (Walling, 1999;Zhang et al, 2004). Uma situação ainda mais complexa é o caso (freqüente) da sobreposição dos efeitos da variabilidade climática aos de mudança do uso e manejo da terra, de difícil separação, particularmente em grandes bacias (Tucci, 2003;Quermer et al, 2005 (Salas, 1992 Para avaliar o efeito da mudança de uso e manejo do solo sobre o escoamento superficial e sobre o aporte de sedimento na bacia, foram selecionados os seguintes cenários: (a) o cenário atual da bacia (referência), onde predominam as pastagens plantadas e as áreas de agricultura, sob o manejo convencional (PC) (4) ; (b) o cenário antes do início da colonização de Brasília, em 1960, onde predominavam os Cerrados e matas ciliares nativas (CER); e (c) o cenário de uso atual da terra, porém com as áreas de agricultura intensiva sob plantio direto (PD).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Efeito da variabilidade da precipitação pluvial e do uso e manejo do solo sobre o escoamento superficial e o aporte de sedimento de uma bacia hidrográfica do Distrito Federal

Chaves

Piau

2008

Rev. Bras. Ciênc. Solo

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Downscaling Monthly Forecasts to Simulate Impacts of Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Wheat Production

Cited by 97 publications

References 14 publications

Hydrologic Alterations Predicted by Seasonally-Consistent Subset Ensembles of General Circulation Models

Hydrologic Alterations Predicted by Seasonally-Consistent Subset Ensembles of General Circulation Models

Produção de sedimentos pela erosão em entressulcos em três Latossolos do Rio Grande do Sul

Efeito da variabilidade da precipitação pluvial e do uso e manejo do solo sobre o escoamento superficial e o aporte de sedimento de uma bacia hidrográfica do Distrito Federal

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