Douglas-fir climate sensitivity at two contrasting sites along the southern limit of the European planting range

Castaldi, Cristiano; Marchi, Maurizio; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Corona, Piermaria

doi:10.1007/s11676-019-01041-5

Cited by 19 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…As example, Casalegno et al [99] indicated an increment of spatial distribution of Arolla pine as consequence of the progressive abandonment of pastures in the Alps. Instead, Douglas fir is indicated as a tolerant species versus drought events [100,101] and its habitat suitability is indicated in increment in Europe in future time periods by Dyderski et al [102]. In the end, laricio pine is indicated as tolerant to heat and drought events [103].…”

Section: Sdm As a Tool For Forest Management Options In The Italian Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s

Pecchi

Marchi

Moriondo

et al. 2020

Forests

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Forests provide a range of ecosystem services essential for human wellbeing. In a changing climate, forest management is expected to play a fundamental role by preserving the functioning of forest ecosystems and enhancing the adaptive processes. Understanding and quantifying the future forest coverage in view of climate changes is therefore crucial in order to develop appropriate forest management strategies. However, the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems remain largely unknown due to the uncertainties lying behind the future prediction of models. To fill this knowledge gap, here we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the forest coverage in Italy using species distribution modelling technique. The spatial distribution of 19 forest tree species in the country was extracted from the last national forest inventory and modelled using nine Species Distribution Models algorithms, six different Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and one Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for 2050s under an intermediate forcing scenario (RCP 4.5). The single species predictions were then compared and used to build a future forest cover map for the country. Overall, no sensible variation in the spatial distribution of the total forested area was predicted with compensatory effects in forest coverage of different tree species, whose magnitude and patters appear largely modulated by the driving climate models. The analyses reported an unchanged amount of total land suitability to forest growth in mountain areas while smaller values were predicted for valleys and floodplains than high-elevation areas. Pure woods were predicted as the most influenced when compared with mixed stands which are characterized by a greater species richness and, therefore, a supposed higher level of biodiversity and resilience to climate change threatens. Pure softwood stands along the Apennines chain in central Italy (e.g., Pinus, Abies) were more sensitive than hardwoods (e.g., Fagus, Quercus) and generally characterized by pure and even-aged planted forests, much further away from their natural structure where admixture with other tree species is more likely. In this context a sustainable forest management strategy may reduce the potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. Silvicultural practices should be aimed at increasing the species richness and favoring hardwoods currently growing as dominating species under conifers canopy, stimulating the natural regeneration, gene flow, and supporting (spatial) migration processes.

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Section: Sdm As a Tool For Forest Management Options In The Italian Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s

Pecchi

Marchi

Moriondo

et al. 2020

Forests

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show abstract

“…As example, Casalegno et al (2010) indicated an increment of spatial distribution of Arolla pine as consequence of the progressive abandoned of pastures in the Alps. Instead, Douglas r is indicated as tolerant species versus drought events (Vitali et al 2017;Castaldi et al 2019) and its habitat suitability is indicated in increment in Europe on future time period by Dyderski et al (2018). In the end, laricio pine is indicated as tolerant to heat and drought events by Cheaib et al (Cheaib et al 2012).…”

Section: Sdm As a Tool For Forest Management Options In The Italian Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of key forest tree species in Italy under RCP4.5 for 2050s

Pecchi¹,

Marchi²,

Moriondo³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: Forests provide a range of ecosystem services essential for the human wellbeing and their ability is influenced by climate background and further connected to forest management strategies. Italy is a well-known biodiversity hotspot but an uncertainty assessment of the potential impact of climate change is still missing in this country. The aim of this paper is model the potential impact of climate change on 19 tree species occurring across the Italian forests using a species distribution modelling approach, six different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and one Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for 2050s under an intermediate forcing scenario (RCP 4.5). Results: While no sensible variation in the spatial distribution of the total forested area has been predicted with some tree species gaining space and covering the spatial contractions of others, results showed substantial differences between each species and different climate models. The analyses reported an unchanged amount of total land suitability to forest growth in mountain areas while smaller values were predicted for valleys and floodplains than high-elevation areas. Pure woods were predicted as the most influenced when compared with mixed stands which are characterized by a greater species richness and therefore a supposed higher level of biodiversity and resilience to climate change threatens. Pure softwood stands (e.g. Pinus, Abies) were more sensitive than hardwoods (e.g. Fagus, Quercus), probably due to their artificial origin which established pure stands with tree species generally more prone to admixture with others in (semi)-natural ecosystems.Conclusions: Forest management could play a fundamental role to reduce the potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. Silvicultural practices should be aimed at increasing the species richness and favouring hardwoods currently growing as dominating species under conifers canopy, stimulating the natural regeneration, gene flow and supporting (spatial) migration processes.

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“…The national or local experimental programs were established in many European countries, from Spain to Bulgaria and from Northern France to Southern Italy [ 5 ]. Seeds were often collected independently from the native range, mainly according to local climate and expert knowledge [ 12 ]. Therefore, many planted forests were realized using the most promising genotypes (i.e., seed sources) which were cultivated for timber and to generate new seeds for planting.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This information is only partially known but results were very promising, showing that the second-generation seeds were often able to overcome the growth performances of native ones [ 13 ]. Unfortunately, despite the interesting scientific evidence, such results remain partially obscured by the lack of knowledge concerning the genotypes used in the first “independent” and country-level experimentation of Douglas-fir [ 12 , 14 ]. Therefore, relating the performance in the native with that in the introduced zones is generally hard and a real genotype–environment–performance assessment has rarely been conducted [ 15 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite the importance of Douglas-fir in Europe, its silvicultural history and distribution across a wide range of different climates, very few studies were performed, mainly due to a lack of genetic information to be coupled with direct measurements in trials and stands [ 12 , 14 , 25 ]. However, new studies have opened new research perspectives thanks to molecular data recently provided by a research group in Central Europe, where Douglas-fir old-growth stands were analyzed by means of 13 nuclear simple sequence repeats (nuSSRs) markers and classified to match the provenance origin [ 15 , 26 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic Provenance Detection and Management Pathways for Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco in Italy Using Climatic Analogues

Marchi

Cocozza

2021

Plants

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The introduction of Douglas-fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] in Europe has been one of the most important and extensive silvicultural experiments since the 1850s. This success was mainly supported by the species’ wide genome and phenotypic plasticity even if the genetic origin of seeds used for plantations is nowadays often unknown. This is especially true for all the stands planted before the IUFRO experimentation in the 1960s. In this paper, a methodology to estimate the Douglas-fir provenances currently growing in Italy is proposed. The raw data from the last Italian National Forest Inventory were combined with literature information to obtain the current spatial distribution of the species in the country representing its successful introduction. Afterwards, a random forest classification model was run using downscaled climatic data as predictors and the classification scheme adopted in previous research studies in the Pacific North West of America. The analysis highlighted good matching between the native and the introduction range in Italy. Coastal provenances from British Columbia and the dry coast of Washington were detected as the most likely seed sources, covering 63.4% and 33.8% of the current distribution of the species in the country, respectively. Interior provenances and those from the dry coast of Oregon were also represented but limited to very few cases. The extension of the model on future scenarios predicted a gradual shift in suitable provenances with the dry coast of Oregon in the mid-term (2050s) and afterwards California (2080s) being highlighted as possible new seed sources. However, only further analysis with genetic markers and molecular methods will be able to confirm the proposed scenarios. A validation of the genotypes currently available in Italy will be mandatory as well as their regeneration processes (i.e., adaptation), which may also diverge from those occurring in the native range due to a different environmental pressure. This new information will also add important knowledge, allowing a refinement of the proposed modeling framework for a better support for forest managers.

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Douglas-fir climate sensitivity at two contrasting sites along the southern limit of the European planting range

Cited by 19 publications

References 75 publications

Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s

Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s

Potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of key forest tree species in Italy under RCP4.5 for 2050s

Probabilistic Provenance Detection and Management Pathways for Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco in Italy Using Climatic Analogues

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