Donald Trump’s Effect on Who is Considered “Conservative”

Abstract

Conservative intellectuals have expressed concern that Donald Trump has tarnished the conservative brand with his authoritarian-populist rhetoric and style of governing. What exactly is Donald Trump’s effect on this ideological label? In this paper I replicate work showing that members of Congress who have openly supported Trump are seen as more conservative than those who do not openly support him. I then test this relationship experimentally and explore whether a pro (or anti) Trump cue alone drives this perception or whether other perceived, unstated issue positions might influence this result. I find that supporting Trump moves candidates rightward compared to a control group, and this effect is about twice as large as the anti-Trump cue which moves candidates leftward. I also find that candidates who support Trump are more likely to be associated with additional issue-related content, which could affect ideological perception. Roadmaps for extensions are also discussed.

The Causal Effects of a Trump Endorsement on Voter Preferences in a General Election Scenario

“…Lenz (2012) showed that voters often choose a candidate for non-ideological reasons and subsequently adjust their views to align with their preferred candidate's stances. Previous research considered the ideological effect of Trump on the Republican Party and its voters, finding that Trump-aligned politicians were perceived as more conservative (Amira 2022;Hopkins and Noel 2022). Conservative voters have expressed a willingness to support liberal policy stances when Trump is behind them, revealing that his endorsements can supersede the impact of ideological cues (Agadjanian 2021;Barber and Pope 2019).…”

Self-reported political ideology

“…6 Thus, they often self-identify with ideological labels only symbolically rather than substantively (Conover and Feldman, 1981;Ellis and Stimson, 2012). The latest research also suggests that many Black respondents are unfamiliar with the terms "liberal" and "conservative" (Jefferson, forthcoming) and that public understandings of ideological terms could be reoriented by political elites (Amira, 2022;Hopkins and Noel, 2022). If the public lacks a basic understanding or has a different 5 For instance, the existing literature has demonstrated that individual attachment to the liberal or conservative identity can meaningfully shape political attitudes and behavior (e.g., Popp and Rudolph, 2011;Neiheisel, 2016;Rogowski and Sutherland, 2016;Mason, 2018).…”