Dominos in Central America: Will They Fall? Does It Matter?

Slater, Jérome

doi:10.2307/2538814

Cited by 28 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…This theory of cooperation was flawed on both counts, which helps explain why Soviet efforts to build influence in the developing world were costly and disappointing (Rubinstein 1990). Similarly, U.S. intervention in Indochina and Central America was justified in part by the so-called domino theory, even though the logic and evidence supporting the theory were dubious at best (Slater 1987(Slater , 1993(Slater -1994. All of these examples show how bad IR theories can lead policy makers astray.…”

Section: How Theory Can Aid Policy (In Theory)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relationship Between Theory and Policy in International Relations

Walt

2005

Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci.

145

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■ Abstract Policy makers pay relatively little attention to the vast theoretical literature in IR, and many scholars seem uninterested in doing policy-relevant work. These tendencies are unfortunate because theory is an essential tool of statecraft. Many policy debates ultimately rest on competing theoretical visions, and relying on a false or flawed theory can lead to major foreign policy disasters. Theory remains essential for diagnosing events, explaining their causes, prescribing responses, and evaluating the impact of different policies. Unfortunately, the norms and incentives that currently dominate academia discourage many scholars from doing useful theoretical work in IR. The gap between theory and policy can be narrowed only if the academic community begins to place greater value on policy-relevant theoretical work.

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Section: How Theory Can Aid Policy (In Theory)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relationship Between Theory and Policy in International Relations

Walt

2005

Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci.

145

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“…This idea's important Cold War legacy is well known. From Eisenhower's predecessor, Harry Truman, who intervened in South Korea in 1950, to Ronald Reagan's intervention in Latin America in the 1980s, the domino theory undeniably stood “at the heart of American foreign policy” (Slater 1987, 105). America is not the only country to have rooted important foreign policy decisions in falling domino logic.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Several Cold War–era papers offer their judgments about whether domino effects will be important in one country or another and what the broader consequences of falling dominoes might be in particular nations (see, for instance, Murphy 1966; Viksnins 1974). A handful of others argue that the stakes of falling dominoes during the Cold War were exaggerated (see, for instance, Slater 1987; Walt 2000). Several papers that consider how the domino theory metaphor has affected countries’ foreign policy also exist (see, for instance, Shimko 1994).…”

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confidence: 99%

The Democratic Domino Theory: An Empirical Investigation

Leeson

Dean

2009

American J Political Sci

111

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According to the democratic domino theory, increases or decreases in democracy in one country spread and "infect" neighboring countries, increasing or decreasing their democracy in turn. Using spatial econometrics and panel data that cover over 130 countries between 1850 and 2000, this article empirically investigates the democratic domino theory. We find that democratic dominoes do in fact fall as the theory contends. However, these dominoes fall significantly "lighter" than the importance of this model suggests. Countries "catch" only about 11% of the increases or decreases in their average geographic neighbors' increases or decreases in democracy. This finding has potentially important foreign policy implications. The "lightness" with which democratic dominoes fall suggests that even if foreign military intervention aimed at promoting democracy in undemocratic countries succeeds in democratizing these nations, intervention is likely to have only a small effect on democracy in their broader regions.

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“…Before Eisenhower, a similar argument also influenced the Truman Administration's decision to intervene in Greece and Korea. 15 More recently, the domino theory has been used to justify American interventions in Latin America, Iraq, and Middle East. 16 Its influence also has extended to foreign policymakers in Germany, Britain, and other countries.…”

Section: Domino Effects and The Diffusion Of Political Violence Acrosmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Contagious Diffusion of Worldwide Terrorism: Is It Less Common Than We Might Think?

LaFree

Xie

Matanock

2017

Studies in Conflict & Terrorism

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Studies of the contagious spread of insurgency and conflict across national boundaries have generated a good deal of empirical research over time. While the contagious spread of terrorism has also been a policy concern, few empirical studies exist on the extent to which terrorism spreads contagiously. This paper uses methods developed by criminologists to study the spread of crime to examine the world-wide diffusion of terrorism from 1970 to 2013. We distinguish between contagious increases (based on shared borders) and non-contagious increases (where no borders are shared). We define the "domino effect" as a particular type of contagious diffusion where high levels of terrorism spread to an adjoining country but also remain high in the host country. Our analysis shows that both contagious and non-contagious diffusion has been rare over the past 43 years, non-contagious diffusion is more common than contagious, and when contagious diffusion occurs, it is very likely to occur according to the domino effect. THE CONTAGIOUS DIFFUSION OF WORLD-WIDE TERRORISM: IS IT LESS COMMON THAN WE MIGHT THINK?Researchers and policy makers have long been concerned with the possibility that terrorism and other forms of political conflict and violence may quickly spread from one country to another. Analogies are often drawn to infectious disease with the implication that once a major outbreak is under way in a particular country, if unchecked it may rapidly "infect" other regions and even countries, spiraling out of control as in an epidemic. While the domino theory was primarily about the contagious spread of communism rather than political violence, it assumed that this contagion would happen across countries that shared borders. Recently, the rapid rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has raised similar concerns about the contagious spread of terrorism across the border of Syria and Iraq into Turkey, Jordan, and elsewhere. In this paper, we draw on methods developed for studying the spatial diffusion of crime 12 to examine the world-wide diffusion of terrorism over more than four decades . We distinguish between contagious diffusion where high levels of terrorism spread to an adjoining country from a host country but remain at high levels in the host country (referred to here as expanded contagion) from contagious diffusion where high levels of terrorism spread to an adjoining country but do not remain high in the host country (displaced contagion). Note that expanded diffusion references the specific outcome commonly known as "the domino effect."Both of these types of diffusion differ from non-contagious diffusion whereby the tactic may spread to countries that do not share borders.Our analysis of annual terrorist attacks for all non-island countries of the world shows that terrorist attacks since 2010 are more concentrated at the national level than at any other time since our data begin in 1970. We also find that contagious diffusion (both expanded and displaced) has been uncommon over this time pe...

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Dominos in Central America: Will They Fall? Does It Matter?

Cited by 28 publications

References 20 publications

The Relationship Between Theory and Policy in International Relations

The Relationship Between Theory and Policy in International Relations

The Democratic Domino Theory: An Empirical Investigation

The Contagious Diffusion of Worldwide Terrorism: Is It Less Common Than We Might Think?

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