Doha Scenarios, Trade Reforms, and Poverty in the Philippines: A CGE Analysis

Abstract

The paper examines the possible impact of Doha agreement on Philippine poverty. Using a detailed CGE analysis, the agreement is observed to depress world demand for Philippine agricultural exports, and thus slightly increase poverty, especially among rural households. However, an ambitious full trade liberalization scenario, which involves free world trade and domestic liberalization, leads to increased industrial exports that favor urban households. These impacts are driven primarily by domestic trade liberalization, as free world trade favors the agricultural sector by increasing the cost of competing agricultural imports.

Agricultural Price Distortions, Poverty, and Inequality in the Philippines

“…These results are consistent with those obtained by Cororaton, Cockburn, and Corong (2006). However, their results suggest a worsening of both the poverty gap and severity of poverty while the current results find the opposite, especially under the combined ROW and Philippine agricultural liberalization.…”

Poverty Implications of Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Price Distortions in Pakistan

“…These results are consistent with those obtained by Cororaton, Cockburn, and Corong (2006). However, the results of these authors suggest a worsening in both the poverty gap and the severity of poverty, while our results show the opposite, especially under the combined rest-of-the-world and Philippine agricultural liberalization.…”

“…The Philippines is currently in the fourth phase of the trade reform programs. See Cororaton, Cockburn, and Corong (2006) for a detailed discussion.…”

Growing Together Or Growing Apart ? A Village Level Study Of The Impact Of The Doha Round On Rural China

“…This suggests that some regional compensatory policies might also be considered. (Cororaton, Cockburn, and Corong, 2005).…”