Human activity has greatly accelerated in the past century impacting
biodiversity across the globe. To accurately explain contemporary
patterns of biodiversity, classic ecological theory must be updated to
incorporate the effects of this Great Acceleration on biodiversity. We
contemporized island biogeographic theory (IBT) and its extension, the
general dynamic model (GDM), to incorporate these effects. At their
core, IBT and GDM predict positive relationships between island species
richness and habitat diversity, and negative relationships between
island species richness and isolation from source pools of species.
Through the Great Acceleration, land development on islands has altered
habitat diversity and the introduction of species through global trade
has reduced island isolation. We contemporize IBT and GDM by
conceptualizing trajectories of how species richness on islands will
change given accelerations to land development and trade. Considering
these contemporary trajectories, we provide expectations for the
relationships of native, introduced, and total species richness with
natural and anthropogenic metrics of habitat diversity (geographic and
economic area, respectively) and isolation from source pools (geographic
and economic isolation, respectively). We assessed the expectations
across reptile and amphibian clades of the Caribbean islands. As
expected by the contemporized theory, natural habitat diversity metrics
exhibited positive relationships with both native and introduced species
richness, strengthening total species richness-area relationships.
Geographic isolation exhibited negative relationships with native and
positive relationships with introduced species richness, weakening total
species richness-isolation relationships. Economic area and isolation
both exhibited negative relationships with native richness, but positive
and negative relationships, respectively, with introduced richness.
Total species richness relationships with economic area and isolation
were also strongest in clades with many introduced species. As more
species spread globally, the contemporary expectations we articulate
here will increasingly predict island biogeography of the Anthropocene.