Does tuberculosis have a seasonal pattern among migrant population entering Iran?

Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Khanjani, Narges; Bahrampour, Abbas; Nasehi, Mahshid

doi:10.15171/ijhpm.2014.43

Cited by 14 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…We have demonstrated that the prevalence of TB infection was 5.55% (153 /2,755). Also the highest prevalence of TB infection was observed in spring and summer, especially in May, which agrees with the results of other studies conducted in the north of Iran and migrant population entering Iran (Leung et al, 2005;Moosazadeh, Khanjani, & Bahrampour, 2013;Moosazadeh, Khanjani, Bahrampour, & Nasehi, 2014). In previous studies, the infection incidence varied in different months (Douglas, Strachan, & Maxwell, 1996;Leung et al, 2005;Rios, Garcia, Sanchez, & Perez, 2000).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Suspected Patients in a Teaching Hospital in Northeastern Iran: A Cross-Sectional Study

Falahi¹,

Gazvini²,

Marzieh³

et al. 2018

JMBR

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Background: Mycobacterium tuberculosis is an infectious agent responsible for major health problems and a large number of mortalities. The prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection varies across countries. Knowing the infection prevalence can aid in improving public health and reduce the associated costs. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) infection in suspected cases in Mashhad, Iran.Methods: All the clinical specimens suspected of TB infection were sent to a laboratory for diagnosis during -March 2017 to March 2018. The samples were analyzed microscopically using Ziehl–Neelsen staining, by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to identify the Mycobacterium tuberculosis species using IS6110 primers, and the samples were also grown on Lowenstein–Jensen medium.Results: Of 2,755 clinical samples analyzed, 153 (5.55%) were identified as Mycobacterium tuberculosis-positive, of which 54.9% originated from females and 45.1% from males. The highest rate of infection was observed in spring, especially in May (15%). Most TB cases were found in patients in VIP (43.1%), thorax (17%), and internal (15%) wards. TB infection was mostly detected in bronchial tube (70%) and sputum (23.5%) samples. The most common positive smear was 1+ (36%). Of the 153 cases, (147) 96.1% were culture –positive and 2% were PCR-negative also 84.3% were smear –positive.Conclusion: The highest rate of infection occurred in spring, when the number of religious tourists entering the city was at its peak. Considering the sensitive location of this city, awareness regarding TB status can lead to improved health in the community and development of basic strategies to control and eliminate the transmission of this infection from Mashhad to other areas.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Suspected Patients in a Teaching Hospital in Northeastern Iran: A Cross-Sectional Study

Falahi¹,

Gazvini²,

Marzieh³

et al. 2018

JMBR

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“…The current study findings were in accordance with previous reports by Moosazadeh et al (9)(10)(11). Apart from domestic experiences, worldwide studies uniformly reported Figure 1.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Tabatabaee et al suggested a specific study on social and environmental determinants of TB incidence in Fars province (8). There are only two reports addressing TB seasonal pattern in Iran; both of which emphasized the highest incidence in late spring to early summer (9,10). To the best of authors' knowledge, no studies are conducted in Fars province to evaluate possible seasonal pattern regarding TB incidence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pulmonary Tuberculosis Seasonality Survey in Fars Province, South of Iran

2019

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Background: Some studies show tuberculosis (TB) seasonal pattern. There are only two reports addressing TB seasonal pattern in Iran. Objectives: The current retrospective analysis aimed at determining the seasonal distribution pattern of all registered pulmonary TB cases over the recent six years in Fars province of Iran. Methods: All patients with pulmonary TB in Fars province diagnosed from 2006 to 2011 were investigated in terms of gender, age, and the month of definitive diagnosis. Patients with clinical symptoms suggestive of pulmonary TB with at least one documented positive culture or smear for acid-fast bacilli were included. Results: A total of 934 patients with pulmonary TB with a mean age of 44.3 ± 21 years were studied, of whom 319 (42.2%) were male. The highest proportion of patients were diagnosed in May (10.7%) and June (10.2%) (P = 0.033). More than 29% of the TB incidents occurred during spring. The proportion of patients presenting in spring decreased from 39.7% in 2006 to 28.4% in 2011. Similarly, percentage of patients recorded in summer significantly decreased during the study (P = 0.008). Conclusions: Pulmonary TB is a seasonal disease in Fars province with peak incidence in warm seasons independent of patients' age and gender though seasonal fluctuations decreased over the study period.

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“…There are different factors affecting the incidence of TB in various areas, such as weather, epidemiological transition, drug resistance, HIV, migration, and poverty. These factors might increase the incidence of TB (5,6,15).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Which Type of Univariate Forecasting Methods Is Appropriate for Prediction of Tuberculosis Cases in Razavi Khorasan Province? A Need for Surveillance and Biosurveillance Systems

et al. 2019

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Background: TB surveillance and preventing the further spread of the disease need the full knowledge of the biological characteristics influencing TB and detecting mathematical patterns to interpret the mechanism of TB spread. These models can provide explanations and knowledge of the dynamics of diseases and can be used for forecasting the ensuing values. To determine the possible number of patients, the time ahead is vital for decision making in public health. However, it is essential to determine forecasts' accuracy utilizing genuine forecasts. Thus, we obtained the TB cases from April 2007 until March 2018 in Razavi Khorasan province to develop a fit model and forecast the number of TB cases for the next 24 months. Methods: We considered a time series of monthly incidence counts of TB in Razavi Khorasan province from April 2007 until March 2018. The data included total TB, pulmonary TB, new pulmonary TB, retreatment TB, and extrapulmonary TB cases. For choosing models and forecasting, we use about 20% of all data (24 data) for testing and the rest for training the model. The optimization of parameters was done automatically according to the smallest root mean squared error for these time-series analysis techniques with STATA. The models were EWMAs models (single exponential and double exponential smoothers) and totally, we compared the quality of forecasts provided by EWMAs models through the stand-alone measurement (RMSE). Results: The patterns of raw series of total TB, pulmonary TB, and new pulmonary TB were almost the same. They illustrated slowly downward trends with oscillation around the trend that was a property of cyclic trend. For retreatment TB and extrapulmonary TB cases, reductions occurred over time although with no pattern. The results of statistical models indicated that the values of smoothing constants of all series were near zero that indicated a very smooth series with slowly changing counts. Total TB, pulmonary TB, and new pulmonary TB series had double exponential patterns with noisy and long-standing trend and they might be increasing in the 24 months ahead. Retreatment TB and extrapulmonary TB series had simple exponential patterns with noisy and without secular trends; they might be with no changes in the 24 months ahead. Conclusions: The end TB strategy, MDG 6, target 8 is to stop and start to inverse the incidence of TB by 2015 and we joined this strategy in January 2006. However, TB control remains one of the main public health concerns. In recent years, our country has experienced immigrants from neighboring countries, sanctions or/and attacks with category C of biological agents in moving toward tuberculosis elimination. Our implementation requires changes in strategies and activities that should evolve over time. The findings of this study are helpful in achieving this goal.

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Does tuberculosis have a seasonal pattern among migrant population entering Iran?

Cited by 14 publications

References 17 publications

Prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Suspected Patients in a Teaching Hospital in Northeastern Iran: A Cross-Sectional Study

Prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Suspected Patients in a Teaching Hospital in Northeastern Iran: A Cross-Sectional Study

Pulmonary Tuberculosis Seasonality Survey in Fars Province, South of Iran

Which Type of Univariate Forecasting Methods Is Appropriate for Prediction of Tuberculosis Cases in Razavi Khorasan Province? A Need for Surveillance and Biosurveillance Systems

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