In this research work, we specifically address post-dispersal Spanish black pine (Pinus nigra Arn. ssp salzmannii) seed predation at two different locations, one being the most common and representative location for the species and the other located on areas at their ecological limit of distribution in Cuenca Mountain (Spain). A modelling approach was employed to analyze the effect of stand and site characteristics and climate variables on the post-dispersal predation process. Each predator group (ants, rodents and birds) was evaluated by excluding the other two with different experimental devices. Our study demonstrates that the percent of removal was related with the seed rain patterns being lower in the high seed rain year of 2006 (mean ± se 11.15 ± 3.7% of removed seeds) than in the low seed rain years of 2005 and 2007 (81.71 ± 6.0% and 87.29 ± 6.6% of removed seeds respectively). In high seed production years, birds were the most important predators and rodents were the less important predator group in both Los Palancares y Agregados and Ensanche de Las Majadas. No conclusion can be obtained in low seed production years due to the high seed removal percentage by all predator groups. Experimental site and overstory density were no significant with respect to seed predation. Modelling approach show that the seed removal percentage is influenced by seed production year (MastY) a temporal effect within the year, measured by the day variable (Day) and a climatic variable (accumulated averaged maximum air temperatures 20 days before survey date, AaMAT). Further developments include the construction of stochastic models to predict the effects of climate-related variables or microhabitat characteristics on seed losses, contributing to reduce uncertainty in post-dispersal Spanish black pine seed predation dynamics and to provide credible tools to decision-makers and forest managers.Key words: mast year; post-dispersal seed predation; Pinus nigra; Mediterranean region.
Resumen Modelización de predación post-dispersión de semillas de pino laricio en el Centro-este de EspañaEl presente trabajo de investigación se centra en la predación post-dispersión acontecida en dos áreas forestales, una localizada en la zona de distribución característica del pino laricio (Pinus nigra Arn ssp salzmannii) y otra en su límite ecológico de distribución dentro de la Serranía de Cuenca (España). El efecto que sobre la predación post-dispersión tienen la densidad arbórea, diferentes variables climáticas y varias características de cada masa forestal fue evaluado mediante la creación de diferentes modelos. Cada grupo de predadores (hormigas, ratones y pájaros) fue analizado por exclusión de los otros dos mediante diferentes dispositivos experimentales. Nuestro estudio demuestra que el porcentaje de semilla predada estuvo relacionado con la lluvia de semillas, siendo menor en 2006, año de abundante producción (media ± estandar error: 11.15 ± 3.7% de semillas predadas) que en 2005 y 2007, años de escasa producción de semilla (81.71 ...