Does the Premium Fit the Risk? The Role of Criminal Escalation in Case Processing

Abstract

Legal and qualitative studies have highlighted that courtroom actors consider multiple aspects of criminal records. However, most quantitative studies on sentencing only included the number of prior convictions or arrests, with little attention to the seriousness trends of those priors. Taking stock from studies on criminal careers, we used group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) to identify patterns of escalation and de-escalation among a defendant sample in New York State ( n = 56,017), and then examined the role of trajectory groups in four decision points: dismissal, charge reduction, incarceration, and incarceration length. We found that escalation, de-escalation, and a higher stable level of crime seriousness were associated with less favorable outcomes at multiple decision points.

Restrictive Housing Placement and Length of Stay: A Latent Class Analysis With Mixed Distributions

“…Without the simultaneous demonstration of misconduct, those with a higher number of prior records did not appear to be more likely to face RH than those who had the lowest visible risk. The findings echo with recent calls to move beyond the mere counts of prior records and examine more closely additional factors associated with risk (Cihan et al, 2017; Yan & Walker, 2022). While we have no intention to negate the significance of prior records in the criminal justice context, we also caution against the “one-variable-fits-all” thinking pattern when evaluating the risk factors in different settings.…”