Does the monetary policy of the United States affect the consumer price inflation in Russia?

Abstract

Subject. The economic environment in Russia, similar to other countries, is represented by the consumer price index. It is regulated by the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Since Russia participates in international economic relations, its economic environment is affected by the monetary policy of the USA, because this country plays the greatest role in the global economy and the global economic system as a whole. At the moment, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System of the USA has a stronger impact on consumer price inflation in Russia than the monetary policy of the Central Bank, because the US economy is significantly larger than the Russian economy. Specifically, an increase in money supply in the USA, required to stimulate economic activity in the country, can accelerate the growth of the consumer price index in our country. It is therefore important to build economic and mathematical models in order to predict the consumer price index in Russia based on the indicators of the CB and the FRS. Purpose. The purpose of our study was to determine the effect of the monetary policy of the CB and the FRS on the consumer price index in Russia and derive multiple autoregression equations in order to predict the consumer inflation rate in our country based on the indicators of the CB and the FRS. Methodology. In our study, we used general and specific scientific methods: analysis, synthesis, and statistical methods (correlation and regression analysis). The study was based on the analysis of relevant scientific literature and economic journals. Conclusions. The study determined that the monetary policy of the FRS directly affects the consumer price index in Russia. It also stresses the need to develop measures aimed at eliminating the side effects of the monetary policy of the FRS in Russia. The article demonstrates a strong negative effect of increased US money supply on the economic situation in Russia and a strong correlation between the M2 money supply in the USA, the US dollar index, and the consumer price index in Russia, as compared to a less significant impact of the key rate of the CB and the M2 money supply in Russia.