Does the Misery Index Influence a U.S. President’s Political Re-Election Prospects?

Adrangi, Bahram; Macri, Joseph

doi:10.3390/jrfm12010022

Cited by 12 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Işık & Çetenak (2019) ampirik olmayan çalışmasında BRICS ülkeleri ve Türkiye'yi sefalet endeksi açısından tablo ve grafikler yardımıyla karşılaştırmış ve yeterli bir endeks değerine sahip olmadığı sonucuna ulaşmıştır. Adrangi & Macri (2019) Sefalet endeksindeki değişimler ile ABD başkanlarının yeniden seçilmesi arasında bir ilişki tespit etmiştir.…”

Section: Literatür öZetiunclassified

The Effects of Exchange Rates and Loan Interest Rates on Okun Misery Index

AKÇAYIR

2022

ijmeb

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Bu çalışmada, bir makroekonomik performans ölçütü olarak Okun sefalet (iktisadi hoşnutsuzluk) endeksinin döviz kurlarına ve tüketici kredi faiz oranlarına duyarlı olup olmadığı yapısal kırılmaları da dikkate alan ekonometrik yöntemler yardımıyla 2005Q1-2020Q4 dönemleri için Türkiye örnekleminde araştırılmıştır. Döviz kurlarının ve kredi faiz oranlarının endeks üzerindeki etkilerini inceleyen çalışmalara literatürde rastlanmaması ve yapısal kırılmaların dikkate alınması çalışmayı içerik ve konu yönünden özgün kılmaktadır. Hem standart (ADF, PP ve KPSS) hem de çoklu kırılmalı Kapetanios (2005) birim kök testi sonuçlarına göre serilerin tamamı birinci farkta durağan bulunmuştur. Maki (2012) yöntemi ile uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettiği (eşbütünleşik) tespit edilen serilerin uzun dönem katsayıları ve kısa dönem hata düzeltme modelleri DOLS yöntemi ile elde edilmiştir. Her iki bağımsız değişkenin katsayısı da pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Ayrıca hem uzun hem kısa dönemde seriler arasında nedensellik ilişkisi VECM’e dayalı yönetemle tespit edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgulara göre, Türk Lirası 1 birim değer kaybettiğinde sefalet endeksi yaklaşık 0.89 puan yükselirken, kredi faiz oranları 1 puan arttığında sefalet endeksi yaklaşık 0.10 puan yükselmektedir.

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Section: Literatür öZetiunclassified

The Effects of Exchange Rates and Loan Interest Rates on Okun Misery Index

AKÇAYIR

2022

ijmeb

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“…Tang and Lean (2009) concluded that there was a positive relationship between the misery index and growth of crime in the USA during the period 1960-2005. The influence of the MI on the US presidential performance was investigated by Adrangi and Macri (2019) using macroeconomic variables, and they concluded that the misery index has a significant impact on the US presidential performance. To summarize, we conclude that the misery index has a greater impact on the growth of a country.…”

Section: Misery Index and Economic Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Financial Structure, Misery Index, and Economic Growth: Time Series Empirics from Pakistan

Wang

Shah

Ali

et al. 2019

JRFM

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This study empirically analyzes the impact of the financial structure and misery index on economic growth in Pakistan. We adopted Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) for a co-integration approach to the data analysis and used time series data from 1989 to 2017. We used GDP as the dependent variable; the Financial Development index (FDI) and misery index as the explanatory variables; and remittances, real interest, and trade openness as the control variables. The empirical results indicate the existence of a long-term relationship among the included variables in the model and the FD index, misery index, interest rate, trade openness, and remittances as the main affecting variables of GDP in the long run. The government needs appropriate reform in the financial sector and external sector in order to achieve a desirable level of economic growth in Pakistan. The misery index is constructed based on unemployment and inflation, which has a negative implication on the economic growth, and the government needs policies to reduce unemployment and inflation.

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“…Over time, the MI has seen various applications; for example, Cakici and Zaremba (2023) found that the misery index is a reliable predictor of cross-sectional stock returns. For their part, Adrangi and Macri (2019) found that the MI has a statistically significant effect on the probability of approval of U.S. presidents' performances. Meanwhile, Dadgar and Nazari (2018) found the existence of a negative relationship between economic growth and MI; they also found a statistically significant relationship between the index and government type.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tourism and Economic Misery: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Mexico

Sánchez López

2024

Economies

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The misery index (MI) was devised to summarize the most evident costs for a society, attempting to objectively measure the loss in general welfare. It has been remarked in the literature that economic growth exerts a negative impact on the MI; however, analyses of this relationship in the tourism field have been neglected. This study assessed the effectiveness of the tourism sector at improving welfare conditions by measuring the impact of tourism GDP on the misery index and providing a theoretical framework for the relationship between tourism and the MI. A quantitative analysis was conducted using quarterly time series data for the period 2005Q1–2021Q2. Firstly, the existence of a long-term relationship was tested by using the Toda–Yamamoto procedure, and secondly, by applying linear and nonlinear ARDL models. The main results show that tourism can help to reduce the loss of welfare mirrored by the MI. These findings have policy implications, as they provide evidence that expanding the tourism sector counters the MI, and, consequently, the economic malaises derived from it.

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Does the Misery Index Influence a U.S. President’s Political Re-Election Prospects?

Cited by 12 publications

References 21 publications

The Effects of Exchange Rates and Loan Interest Rates on Okun Misery Index

The Effects of Exchange Rates and Loan Interest Rates on Okun Misery Index

Financial Structure, Misery Index, and Economic Growth: Time Series Empirics from Pakistan

Tourism and Economic Misery: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Mexico

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