Does the length of station record influence the warming trend that is perceived by mongolian herders near the Khangai Mountains?

Venable, N. B. H.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Adyabadam, G.; Sukh, Tumenjargal; Fernández‐Giménez, María E.; Batbuyan, B.

doi:10.3989/pirineos.2012.167004

Cited by 20 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(30 reference statements)

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“…Trends were evaluated for the time series of individual months at each station; the Seasonal Kendall Test (Helsel and Hirsch, 2002) was not used to evaluate seasonal trends. However, the period of record used to evaluate a trend may influence its significance (Venable et al, 2012) so the entire period of record in most cases) as well as the early period and late period were each investigated. These shorter periods approximately match the global temperature patterns indicating cooling from the mid-1940s through mid-1970s and rapid warming since.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Snowpack variability and trends at long-term stations in northern Colorado, USA

Fassnacht

Hultstrand

2015

Proc. IAHS

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Abstract. The individual measurements from snowcourse stations were digitized for six stations across northern Colorado that had up to 79 years of record (1936 to 2014). These manual measurements are collected at the first of the month from February through May, with additional measurements in January and June. This dataset was used to evaluate the variability in snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) across a snowcourse, as well as trends in snowpack patterns across the entire period of record and over two halves of the record (up to 1975 and from 1976).Snowpack variability is correlated to depth and SWE. The snow depth variability is shown to be highly correlated with average April snow depth and day of year. Depth and SWE were found to be significantly decreasing over the entire period of record at two stations, while at another station the significant trends were an increase over the first half of the record and a decrease over the second half. Variability tended to decrease with time, when significant.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Snowpack variability and trends at long-term stations in northern Colorado, USA

Fassnacht

Hultstrand

2015

Proc. IAHS

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“…This occurs when survey responses are equally divided between two extreme values on a response scale ( Figure 3). A PCI 2 of 0 illustrates all answers on one side of the response scale, suggesting complete consensus [41]. Readers are referred to Appendix A for the computation of the PCI 2 index, and ref.…”

Section: Uncertainty From Herder Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Mann-Kendall significance test [58,59] and Theil-Sen rate of change [60,61] have been used extensively to investigate climate change [6,7,42,44], including for studies across Mongolia [2,4,30,33,40,41]. The PCI 2 method [46] has not had extensive application to date [45,65] with limited use of IKS [66].…”

Section: Linking Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Four meteorological stations were used: Erdenemandal and Tsetserleg in the north, and Bayankhongor and Khoriult in the south. The first three stations had a 50-year period of record, while Khoriult's period of record was 35 years [41]. Meteorological observations were summarized with daily time steps [4,41].…”

Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first three stations had a 50-year period of record, while Khoriult's period of record was 35 years [41]. Meteorological observations were summarized with daily time steps [4,41]. The two Northern stations are in the Forest-Steppe ecozone, while Bayankhongor and Khoriult are in the Steppe and Desert-Steppe ecozones, respectively [54].…”

Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

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Merging Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Station Observations to Estimate the Uncertainty of Precipitation Change in Central Mongolia

et al. 2018

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Across the globe, station-based meteorological data are analyzed to estimate the rate of change in precipitation. However, in sparsely populated regions, like Mongolia, stations are few and far between, leaving significant gaps in station-derived precipitation patterns across space and over time. We combined station data with the observations of herders, who live on the land and observe nature and its changes across the landscape. Station-based trends were computed with the Mann-Kendall significance and Theil-Sen rate of change tests. We surveyed herders about their observations of changes in rain and snowfall amounts, rain intensity, and days with snow, using a closed-ended questionnaire and also recorded their qualitative observations. Herder responses were summarized using the Potential for Conflict Index (PCI 2 ), which computes the mean herder responses and their consensus. For one set of stations in the same forest steppe ecosystem, precipitation trends were similar and decreasing, and the herder-based PCI 2 consensus score matched differences between stations. For the other station set, trends were less consistent and the PCI 2 consensus did not match well, since the stations had different climates and ecologies. Herder and station-based uncertainties were more consistent for the snow variables than the rain variables. The combination of both data sources produced a robust estimate of climate change uncertainty.

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Capitalizing on the daily time step of snow telemetry data to model the snowmelt components of the hydrograph for small watersheds

Fassnacht

Deitemeyer

Venable

2014

Hydrological Processes

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Daily time step data from National Resources Conservation Service snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations were used to estimate components of the snowmelt-dominated hydrograph for three small watersheds in Colorado and Wyoming. Thirty-three years of SNOTEL data was paired with streamflow data to estimate the annual run-off volume (Q 100 ) and peak streamflow (Q peak ), as well as the timing of 20, 50, and 80% (t Q20 , t Q50 , and t Q80 ) of the annual streamflow. Multivariate regression models were derived from snow water equivalent (SWE) data for one basin (Joe Wright Creek), and the model components were then retained and applied to the other two watersheds. The basin-specific coefficients developed for the Joe Wright model were also applied to the other two basins to evaluate direct transferability. Peak SWE, date of peak SWE, and number of consecutive days with snow on the ground up to the date of peak SWE had the strongest correlation to streamflow and formed the basis of the models. The optimal model configuration performed well for the t Q20 , t Q50 , and Q 100 , with poorer performance for Q peak and t Q80 . Applying the Joe Wright Creek coefficients directly to the other watersheds yielded reasonable results.

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Does the length of station record influence the warming trend that is perceived by mongolian herders near the Khangai Mountains?

Cited by 20 publications

References 15 publications

Snowpack variability and trends at long-term stations in northern Colorado, USA

Snowpack variability and trends at long-term stations in northern Colorado, USA

Merging Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Station Observations to Estimate the Uncertainty of Precipitation Change in Central Mongolia

Capitalizing on the daily time step of snow telemetry data to model the snowmelt components of the hydrograph for small watersheds

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