Does the joint expansion of urban agglomerations threaten the supply and demand of water‐related ecosystem services? A case study in north‐west Hubei, China

Abstract

In the ecological protection zone, it is unclear how the joint development of urban agglomeration affects the supply–demand of water‐related ecosystem services (ESs). This study took northwest Hubei, China (Exibei), a national ecological function area, as a case study and predicted the land‐cover distribution in 2040 under three scenarios: natural scenario (2040NS), economic development (2040ED) and ecological protection (2040EP). And the supply–demand risks of water‐related ESs were simulated under three scenarios. Results indicated that (1) the increase in forest land (0.70%) under 2040NS, construction land (50.03%) under 2040ED and water body (15.16%) under 2040EP basically happened through the occupation of cultivated land; (2) under three scenarios, although the water yield demand in 2040 increased significantly, the supply still fully meet demand; (3) from 2020 to 2040, more than 13.50% of the areas in Exibei of water yield changed from surplus to deficit, mainly covering the north Xiangyang City and the middle Shiyan City; and (4) the change in supply and demand of soil retention from 2020 to 2040 was not obvious. This study provides assistance in water resources rational allocation in ecological function zones with rapid economic development and urban expansion.