Does the Development of Renewable Energy and Smart Grids Pose Risks for Russian Gas Projects? Scenario Forecast for Partner Countries

Abstract

In this article we examine the risks of reducing the consumption of natural gas in the countries that are the largest exporters of Russian natural gas (Germany, Italy, Turkey, China) caused by the development of renewable energy. The forecast of natural gas consumption is built up to 2030 by extrapolating the trend of time series, while selecting the type of trend takes into account the S-shaped development of new energy technologies. Two scenarios are considered: the first involves the development of the electric power industry in the way of "business as usual," while the second takes into account the development of intelligent grids and the Internet of energy (IoE). The results show that the intensive development of renewable energy in combination with the digitalization of electric grids can create the most significant risks for the development of gas energy in Germany and Turkey. In Germany, these risks are determined to a greater extent by the desire of the authorities to maintain the achieved level of energy security, which will inevitably fall with a decrease in coal generation and an increase in the share of gas. In Turkey, these risks are determined by the purely technical and technological development of the country, its dynamics and nature.

Investigating the effect of government subsidies on enterprise research and development

“…Following sanctions imposed upon Russia by Western European and other countries (Chepeliev et al, 2022), restrictions on the sale of Russian fossil fuels to these nations have aggravated the historical volatility of the sector (Stulberg, 2017;Fokaides, 2020;Goncharuk et al, 2021;Stančík et al, 2021;Mišík, 2022). Consequently, it can be argued that if these Western European and other nations were less reliant on fossil fuels in general, the geopolitics currently in play could have been altered towards greater international peace through the adoption of renewable energy (Ratner et al, 2019;Su et al, 2021;Yusta and Beyza, 2021;Hosseini, 2022). Renewable energy, however, is strongly reliant on the grid operator's ability to store electricity generated from (primarily) solar and wind energy (Keck et al, 2019;Loukatou et al, 2020;Laribi and Rudion, 2021;Mikulski and Tomczewski, 2021;Šimić et al, 2021;Olabi et al, 2022a).…”

Development of Leading Approaches for Risk Assessment of the Renewable Energy: Some Recommendations

“…Active state influence usually contributes to the emergence of specific risks and drive an increase in the riskiness of renewable energy projects (Mutran et al 2020). Earlier studies (Ratner et. al 2020;Ermolenko et al 2016;Chebotareva 2019;Shimbar and Ebrahimi 2020) quantified the impact of state support mechanisms on the cost and riskiness of RE projects.…”