Does the death penalty save lives?

Abstract

Research Summary Economists have recently reexamined the “capital punishment deters homicide” thesis using modern econometric methods, with most studies reporting robust deterrent effects. The current study revisits this controversial question using annual state panel data from 1977 to 2006. Employing well‐known econometric procedures for panel data analysis, our results provide no empirical support for the argument that the existence or application of the death penalty deters prospective offenders from committing homicide. Policy Implications Although policymakers and the public can continue to base support for use of the death penalty on retribution, religion, or other justifications, defending its use based solely on its deterrent effect is contrary to the evidence presented here. At a minimum, policymakers should refrain from justifying its use by claiming that it is a deterrent to homicide and should consider less costly, more effective ways of addressing crime.

Is life without parole an effective way to reduce violent crime? An empirical assessment

“…The total number of people serving LWOP sentences in thousands ("Total LWOP") 3 and the number of people serving LWOP per 10,000 population ("LWOP per capita") are both expected to capture the absolute deterrent or incapacitating effect of LWOP. We include both measures because there is disagreement over whether the sheer volume of punishment or the rate of punishment is the thing to which potential criminals respond (Kovandzic, Vieraitis, & Boots, 2009). On the one hand, as the number of people serving LWOP increases, the public is likely to hear about the sentence more often (even if the actual rate at which the sentence is imposed remains low).…”

“…For example, our analysis focuses on whether using LWOP more often reduces violent crime (via either deterrence or incapacitation), but it is possible that the presence of a LWOP statute or the publicity surrounding LWOP is the thing that reduces crime rather than the actual use of the sanction. In the death penalty literature, for instance, several studies examine the impact of the presence of a death penalty law or the amount of news media coverage of executions rather than (or in addition to) the objective risk of execution (Bailey, 1998;Dezhbakhsh & Shepherd, 2006;Kovandzic et al, 2009;Stolzenberg & D'Alessio, 2004). Although we encourage such an analysis to be performed, as the results would clearly be useful and informative, knowing the effect of a penalty's presence or absence does not indicate how often that sanction should be applied (if at all).…”

“…To be consistent with those studies and to avoid misspecifying our models, we also control for racial composition by using percent non-White. Furthermore, we have included the proportion of the population with a college degree because, in addition to appearing in the death penalty literature (Kovandzic et al, 2009), increasing education levels have been empirically associated with reductions in violent crime (Groot & van den Brink, 2010;Lochner, 2004).…”

“…A more appropriate measure would be the percentage of the population living in urban areas, but we could not use this variable because the U.S. Census Bureau ceased reporting this measure in 2012. Many analyses of crime and the death penalty also include a measure of income (Dezhbakhsh & Shepherd, 2006;Dezhbakhsh et al, 2003;Enter Katz et al, 2003;Kovandzic et al, 2009;Shepherd, 2005;Wright et al, 1999;Zimmerman, 2006); however, in our data set, this variable was highly correlated with "Poverty" and "College," so to avoid multicollinearity issues, we omitted this variable from the model. As a result of the myriad concerns with measuring the death penalty noted earlier, we have also chosen not to include any measures of the death penalty as control variables in our model.…”

Capital Punishment

“…The deterrence debate resurfaced in the past 10 years when several economists began to apply newer econometric data analytic techniques to test, once again, whether executions deter homicide. A few studies have reported large deterrent effects (Dezhbakhsh, Rubin, & Shepherd, 2003;Zimmerman, 2009), yet these too have been critiqued for their methodological choices, and for their underlying assumptions about human behavior (Donohue & Wolfers, 2005;Fagan, Zimring, & Gellers, 2006;Kovandzic, Vieraitis, & Boots, 2009). In 2012, the National Research Council released yet another report assessing the body of work produced since its last report on the subject.…”