Does State Repression Spark Protests? Evidence from Secret Police Surveillance in Communist Poland

Abstract

Does physical surveillance hinder or foster antiregime resistance? A common view holds that surveillance prevents resistance by providing regimes with high-quality intelligence on dissident networks and by instilling fear in citizens. We contrast this view using formerly classified data from Communist Poland. We find that communities exposed to secret police officers were more likely to organize protests but also engaged in less sabotage. To ensure that the relationship is causal, we use an instrumental variable strategy, which exploits the exogenous assignment of Catholic “spy priests” to local communities. To trace the underlying mechanisms, we draw on qualitative interviews and archival sources. We document that Poland’s comprehensive use of surveillance created widespread anger as well as an incentive for citizens to reveal their true loyalties, thus facilitating antiregime collective action. Once on the streets, protesters refrained from sabotage to signal their political motivation to bystanders and authorities alike.

Government Digital Repression and Political Engagement: A Cross-National Multilevel Analysis Examining the Roles of Online Surveillance and Censorship

“…However, evidence from decades of repression research has been remarkably mixed with substantive findings also demonstrating a “backlash” effect of greater political engagement after government repression (Davenport and Sullivan 2017). To explain this phenomenon some studies have highlighted the role of anger among citizens knowing that they were being surveilled, which motivated political engagement by overriding fear and cost concerns (Best and Krueger 2010; Hager and Krakowski 2021). Other studies of repressive regimes offered an information-based explanation showing that imprisonment of influential anti-government activists could backfire and lead to indirect backlash effects as previously disinterested citizenry proactively sought more information online about those who were arrested.…”

The Impact of Morally Injurious Events on the Dynamics of Mobilization for Women’s Rights in Poland

“…Moreover, research on the history of political contestation in Poland shows that the use of state repression has always backfired, i.e., brought about the opposite of the assumed effects. Instead of contributing to the suppression of protests, state repression sparked and maintained social mobilization (Hager, Krakowski, 2022).…”

Dissent Networks, State Repression, and Strategic Clemency for Defection

“…The mainstream discussion focuses on external information-gathering via surveillance technologies (i.e., traditional wiretapping or modern digital surveillance on the Internet) and how they penetrate dissent movements and aid repression targeting (Xu, 2021; Gohdes, 2020; Keremoglu and Weidmann, 2020; Dragu and Lupu, 2021). It is also widely discussed that dictators often employ secret police to spy on citizens and surveil the population (Greitens, 2016; Hager and Krakowski, 2021). Stasi, the notorious secret police agency in East Germany, is an iconic example.…”