Does State Failure Cause Terrorism? An Empirical Analysis (1999–2008)

Coggins, Bridget

doi:10.1177/0022002713515403

Cited by 62 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The scientific research shows that manifold factors support terrorism (Enders et al, 2016;Coggins, 2015;Crenshaw, 1981). On the basis of the argument presented in this paper, we can therefore conclude that -in average-terrorism is also associated with high growth rates of population, combined with poverty, high income inequality and subsistence stress in society, ceteris paribus.…”

Section: Concluding Observations and Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 49%

“…Many studies analyze the direct and indirect determinants of terrorism (Abadie, 2005;Crenshaw, 1981;Newman, 2006;Freytag et al, 2011;McAllister & Schmid, 2011), though predictors of terrorism tend to be often not equal between different societies over the course of time (Krueger & Malečková, 2009). Some sources of terrorism are explained with economic factors (Enders et al, 2016;Blomberg et al, 2004;Hertog, 2010;Krueger & Malečková, 2002;Von Hippel, 2010), political factors (Coggins, 2015), social factors (Burgoon, 2006;Krueger & Malečková, 2002), etc. However, whether and how demographic factors cause and sustain terrorism is hardly known.…”

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confidence: 99%

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A Theory of General Causes of Terrorism - High Population Growth, Income Inequality and Relative Deprivation

Coccia

2018

AOP

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This paper has two goals. The first is to analyze the possible association between demographic factors and effects of terrorist attacks in society. The second is to detect possible socioeconomic and psychosocial risk factors. These topics are basic in social sciences because terrorism is growing both in rich and in developing nations (Devezas & Santos, 2006; Root causes, 2015;Li & Schaub, 2004;Norris et al., 2013; Reardon, Abstract.A fundamental problem in psychosocial sciences is how to explain the root causes of terrorism. The vast literature has analyzed several determinants of terrorism. However, the precise role of demographic factors for the evolution of terrorism is hardly known. Statistical evidence here reveals that fatalities for incidents of terrorism are associated with growth rates of population. This finding seems to suggest that terrorism thrives -in average-in specific regions with high growth rates of population that may generate income inequality, subsistence stress and relative deprivation of people. In addition, geospatial analysis here reveals that countries with high association between fatalities from terrorist incidents and population growth are mainly in Africa and Middle East. Overall, then, the study here can clarify and generalize whenever possible, one of the causes of terrorism, which seems to be due to sociodemographic factors combined with psychosocial risk factors. Finally, the study suggests socioeconomic policies directed to reduce this critical problem in society.

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Section: Concluding Observations and Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 49%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Theory of General Causes of Terrorism - High Population Growth, Income Inequality and Relative Deprivation

Coccia

2018

AOP

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“…Also, anger is frequently generated by attributional and appraisal processes (Berkowitz, ). In particular, anger on authorities and the government may arise, as terror is often attributed to government failure (Coggins, ). With the Boston Marathon terrorist attack as one example, intelligence services have been criticized for not having prevented the attack despite the fact that the terror suspects were already known (i.e., one was on a terrorist watchlist; Light, ).…”

Section: Emotional Responses To Terrorism Threatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Terror, Terror Everywhere? How Terrorism News Shape Support for Anti‐Muslim Policies as a Function of Perceived Threat Severity and Controllability

Matthes

Schmuck

Sikorski

2019

Political Psychology

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Terrorist attacks committed by the so‐called Islamic State are rising in Western countries. How the news media portray these attacks may crucially influence emotional responses and support for anti‐Muslim policies such as immigration bans. Based on the Extended parallel response model (EPRM, Witte, 1992), we theorize that specific features of terrorism news such as threat severity (e.g., high vs. low number of potential terrorist offenders) and threat controllability (e.g., nondiffuse, controllable threat vs. diffuse, uncontrollable threat) influence individuals’ emotional reactions and policy support. A quota‐based online experiment (N = 501) reveals that news articles featuring a high number of offenders increase individuals’ fear of terror irrespective of whether the threat is portrayed as controllable or not. News articles featuring a low number of offenders only evoke fear of terror if the threat is portrayed as diffuse. Additionally, news articles emphasizing a high number of offenders combined with a controllable terrorism threat elicit anger on the government. Both anger and fear of terror subsequently increase anti‐Muslim policy support.

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“…It is worth noting that we are not establishing any causal relationship due to potential endogeneity concerns between terrorism and its determinants (Coggins 2015;Jetter and Stadelmann 2017). Although all explanatory variables have been included lagged one year trying to mitigate the possible presence of reverse causation, this might not be a completely satisfactory solution if terror persists over time.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

The Socioeconomic Determinants of Terrorism: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Sanso‐Navarro

Vera-Cabello

2018

Defence and Peace Economics

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This paper introduces model uncertainty into the empirical study of the determinants of terrorism at country level. This is done by adopting a Bayesian model averaging approach and accounting for the over-dispersed count data nature of terrorist attacks. Both a broad measure of terrorism and incidents per capita have been analyzed. Our results suggest that, among the set of regressors considered, those reflecting labor market conditions and economic prospects tend to receive high posterior inclusion probabilities. These findings are robust to changes in the model specification and sample composition and are not meaningfully affected by the generalized linear regression model applied. Evidence of a geographically heterogeneous relationship between terrorism and its determinants is also provided. Abbreviation: BMA-Bayesian Model Averaging; GLM-Generalized Linear Models ARTICLE HISTORY Terrorism determinants; model uncertainty; Bayesian model averaging; generalized linear models JEL CLASSIFICATION C11; C25; C52; D74; H56. MotivationThere has been an upsurge in the empirical analysis of the socioeconomic determinants of terrorism at country level after the 9/11 attacks. Related studies explore alternative information sources and dimensions of terrorist activity, consider different potential determinants of terrorism and sample periods, and apply a wide array of estimation methods. This implies that, although it is important to unveil the main causes of terrorism to deal with this scourge and mitigate its substantial and multidimensional costs, there is no clear consensus on the origins of terror in the literature. As an example, Krieger and Meierrieks (2011) provide an overview and critical discussion of the early evidence about the sources and targets of transnational terrorism, reaching no conclusive results.A theoretical foundation for the hypothesis that economic grievances generate terrorism, based on the rational-choice theory and without dismissing noneconomic factors, can be found in Meierrieks (2014). This author suggests that the lack of empirical consensus on the causes of terrorism has to do with its heterogeneity and that its link with the economy needs to be further investigated. Morris and LaFree (2016) also review the quantitative studies about country-level correlates of terrorism, with an emphasis on economic, political and demographic variables. These authors highlight the significant influence exerted by economic development and inequality, democracy, failed states and physical integrity rights. In a related work, Kis-Katos, Liebert, and Schulze (2011) find that the roots of domestic and transnational terrorism are similar. In particular,

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Does State Failure Cause Terrorism? An Empirical Analysis (1999–2008)

Cited by 62 publications

References 35 publications

A Theory of General Causes of Terrorism - High Population Growth, Income Inequality and Relative Deprivation

A Theory of General Causes of Terrorism - High Population Growth, Income Inequality and Relative Deprivation

Terror, Terror Everywhere? How Terrorism News Shape Support for Anti‐Muslim Policies as a Function of Perceived Threat Severity and Controllability

The Socioeconomic Determinants of Terrorism: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

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