Does more mean less? The value of information for conservation planning under sea level rise

Abstract

Many studies have explored the benefits of adopting more sophisticated modelling techniques or spatial data in terms of our ability to accurately predict ecosystem responses to global change. However, we currently know little about whether the improved predictions will actually lead to better conservation outcomes once the costs of gaining improved models or data are accounted for. This severely limits our ability to make strategic decisions for adaptation to global pressures, particularly in landscapes subject to dynamic change such as the coastal zone. In such landscapes, the global phenomenon of sea level rise is a critical consideration for preserving biodiversity. Here, we address this issue in the context of making decisions about where to locate a reserve system to preserve coastal biodiversity with a limited budget. Specifically, we determined the cost-effectiveness of investing in high-resolution elevation data and process-based models for predicting wetland shifts in a coastal region of South East Queensland, Australia. We evaluated the resulting priority areas for reserve selection to quantify the cost-effectiveness of investment in better quantifying biological and physical processes. We show that, in this case, it is considerably more cost effective to use a process-based model and high-resolution elevation data, even if this requires a substantial proportion of the project budget to be expended (up to 99% in one instance). The less accurate model and data set failed to identify areas of high conservation value, reducing the cost-effectiveness of the resultant conservation plan. This suggests that when developing conservation plans in areas where sea level rise threatens biodiversity, investing in high-resolution elevation data and process-based models to predict shifts in coastal ecosystems may be highly cost effective. A future research priority is to determine how this cost-effectiveness varies among different regions across the globe.

Linking the Abundance of Estuarine Fish and Crustaceans in Nearshore Waters to Shoreline Hardening and Land Cover

“…Sea levels are projected to rise substantially by mid-century (IPCC 2007), which will amplify demand for shoreline hardening as humans seek to protect cities, residences, and agricultural lands from coastal flooding (Rahmstorf 2007;Arkema et al 2013). The ability to conserve coastal ecosystems is further complicated by uncertainties associated with predicting how humans and ecosystems will respond to these and other elements of global change (Runting et al 2013). …”

Potential impact of sea level rise on French islands worldwide

“…It is clear that sea level rise will be the largest driver of habitat loss for insular habitats (Wetzel et al 2012). Sea level rise is a particularly critical consideration for preserving coastal biodiversity, yet many approaches for prioritizing conservation networks do not take this into account (Runting et al 2013). Our results predicted that impacts of sea level rise on insular French habitats are likely to be important, especially for two regions: New Caledonia and French Polynesia.…”

Price vs. Value of Marine Monitoring

“…Characteristic for the VoI analysis is that the value of information is in relation to the decision context. For example, Runting et al (2013) found that when making decisions about where to locate a reserve system to preserve coastal biodiversity it is optimal to allocate a substantial proportion of the conservation budget in better data and models. In the fisheries management literature, VoI analysis has been recognized as a valuable tool in advising on the optimal fishing effort or quotas (Hilborn and Walters, 1992;Mäntyniemi et al, 2009).…”