Does lockdown work? A spatial analysis of the spread and concentration of Covid-19 in Italy

Bourdin, Sébastien; Jeanne, Ludovic; Nadou, Fabien; Noiret, Gabriel

doi:10.1080/00343404.2021.1887471

Cited by 83 publications

(93 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Population density has also been found to be crucial in controlling the spread of COVID-19. This result is confirmed by Amdaoud et al [1] with French data and Bourdin et al [11] with Italian data.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 76%

“…After the first cases identified in Europe, different studies pointed out that European regions were not hit equally but that large differences existed between the peripheral regions where the infection rate remained limited and the core regions where the rates reached their maximum levels [1,11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Italy, the country's north was the hardest hit, and one of the wealthiest regions in Europe, Lombardy, registered the highest number of cases. In France, the regions of Île-de-France and Grand Est were the most affected, whereas other regions were substantially untouched by the spread of the epidemic [1,11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Clinical data and surveillance, at an early stage, reported two important aspects of the pandemic: (i) the elderly male population (over the age of 65) and patients with comorbidities, such as diabetes, hypertension, chronic respiratory diseases, cancer and cardiovascular disorders are at higher risk of dying from COVID-19 [16] and (ii) there is a strong spatial dimension to the pandemic's spread [1,11,28,40,42]. Following this train of thought, a multitude of social and economic factors have been identified as potential determinants of the observed variety in COVID-19 outcomes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…GDP per capita is another metric used in modelling health outcomes, health system performance and mortality trends [36,60]. This relationship is positive and significant in the case of COVID-19 [11]. Regions with a higher level of GDP per capita are at higher risk of viral transmission because of their increased social connections between individuals, resulting from higher levels of economic activity [19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Are regions equal in adversity? A spatial analysis of spread and dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe

2021

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Often presented as a global pandemic spreading all over the world, COVID-19, however, hit not only countries but also regions differently. The objective of this paper is to focus on the spatial heterogeneity in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and to contribute to an understanding of the channels by which it spread, focusing on the regional socioeconomic dimension. For this, we use a dataset covering 125 European regions in 12 countries. Considering that the impact of the COVID-19 crisis differed sharply not only across countries but also across regions within the same country, the empirical strategy is based, on the one hand, on an exploratory analysis of spatial autocorrelations, which makes it possible to identify regional clusters of the disease. On the other hand, we use spatial regression models to capture the diffusion effect and the role of different families of regional factors in this process. We find that the share of older people in the population, GDP per capita, distance from achieving EU objectives, and the unemployment rate are correlated with high COVID-19 death rates. In contrast, the number of medical practitioners and hospital beds and the level of social trust are correlated with low COVID-19 death rates.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 76%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Are regions equal in adversity? A spatial analysis of spread and dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe

2021

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How effective has the Spanish lockdown been to battle COVID‐19? A spatial analysis of the coronavirus propagation across provinces

Orea

Álvarez

2021

Health Economics

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This paper examines the propagation of COVID‐19 across the Spanish provinces and assesses the effectiveness of the Spanish lockdown of the population implemented on March 14, 2020 in order to battle this pandemic. To achieve these objectives, a standard spatial econometric model used in economics is adapted to resemble the popular reproduction models employed in the epidemiological literature. In addition, we introduce a counterfactual exercise that allows us to examine the Gross domestic product (GDP) gains of bringing forward the date of the Spanish Lockdown. We find that the number of COVID‐19 cases would have been reduced by 70.4% in the absence of spatial propagation between the Spanish provinces. We also determine that the lockdown prevented the propagation of the virus within and between provinces. As such, the Spanish lockdown reduced the number of potential COVID‐19 cases by 82.8%. However, the number of coronavirus cases would have been reduced by an additional 11.6% if the lockdown had been brought forward to March 7, 2020. Finally, an earlier lockdown would have saved approximately 26,900,000,000 euros.

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The effects of community safety support on COVID‐19 event strength perception, risk perception, and health tourism intention: The moderating role of risk communication

2021

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The community is crucial in preventing COVID‐19 pandemic. By employing 313 online surveys, it is found that the community safety support enhances risk perception, disruption recognition, and criticality recognition but it negatively impacts on novelty recognition. Additionally, risk communication could moderate the relationship between risk perception and health tourism intention. These findings reveal that people would pay more attention to the risk information and they could join health tourism in the post‐pandemic period to enhance their personal physical and mental health. Therefore, health tourism enterprises should appropriately strengthen risk communication and improve people's health awareness to further promote healthy tourism consumption.

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Does lockdown work? A spatial analysis of the spread and concentration of Covid-19 in Italy

Cited by 83 publications

References 51 publications

Are regions equal in adversity? A spatial analysis of spread and dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe

Are regions equal in adversity? A spatial analysis of spread and dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe

How effective has the Spanish lockdown been to battle COVID‐19? A spatial analysis of the coronavirus propagation across provinces

The effects of community safety support on COVID‐19 event strength perception, risk perception, and health tourism intention: The moderating role of risk communication

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