2013
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2013.09.003
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Does homologous reinfection drive multiple-wave influenza outbreaks? Accounting for immunodynamics in epidemiological models

Abstract: HighlightsWe model the primary immune responses to influenza infection in humans.We examine the interplay between immunological and epidemiological dynamics.The model explains cases of homologous reinfection reported during past pandemics.Three epidemic profiles can arise depending on the degree of population mixing.A substantial proportion of infected host would remain unprotected after the 2009 influenza pandemic.

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Cited by 23 publications
(20 citation statements)
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“…Several populations have experienced severe follow-up waves of A(H1N1)pdm09 infection in the postpandemic season in the absence of any reported antigenic drift (15,16), with waning humoral immunity raised as a potential explanation (17). Our results, using longitudinal data from individuals, are the first to provide robust evidence that repeat pandemic waves prior to antigenic drift (18) are not driven by waning humoral immunity.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 57%
“…Several populations have experienced severe follow-up waves of A(H1N1)pdm09 infection in the postpandemic season in the absence of any reported antigenic drift (15,16), with waning humoral immunity raised as a potential explanation (17). Our results, using longitudinal data from individuals, are the first to provide robust evidence that repeat pandemic waves prior to antigenic drift (18) are not driven by waning humoral immunity.…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 57%
“…[3]. These population-level observations of viral interference arise from the interplay between (1) immunodynamics (ie, host-level viral interference), (2) heterogeneity between hosts (ie, differences in immunity to virus strains between individuals), and (3) transmission dynamics (ie, within or between different age groups) [43]. For influenza, these processes have been investigated in some detail.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In the Tristan da Cunha isolate, for example, there is a 45% prevalence of atopy and a 36% prevalence of asthma (Mantle and Tyrrell, 1973; Zamel et al, 1996; Camacho et al, 2011; Camacho and Cazelles, 2013). By comparison, the prevalence of asthma in most out-bred populations rarely exceeds 10%.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…By comparison, the prevalence of asthma in most out-bred populations rarely exceeds 10%. The severity of the Tristan da Cunha atopy phenotype may be reflected in events such as the Tristan da Cunha influenza epidemic of 1971 (Mantle and Tyrrell, 1973; Zamel et al, 1996; Camacho et al, 2011; Camacho and Cazelles, 2013). …”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%