Does harvesting amplify environmentally induced population fluctuations over time in marine and terrestrial species?

Gamelon, Marlène; Sandercock, Brett K.; Sæther, Bernt‐Erik

doi:10.1111/1365-2664.13466

Cited by 29 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 107 publications

(136 reference statements)

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“…Spatial synchrony is a common feature of wild populations, with its magnitude and extent dependent on rates of individual dispersal, strength of environmental factors (‘Moran Effect’) or the widespread influence of interspecific trophic interactions (reviewed by Liebhold et al, 2004). Importantly, anthropogenic stress, such as that induced by fisheries harvest, can also drive an increase in spatial synchrony (Frank et al, 2016), as age and size truncation decrease demographic buffering and in turn increase instability in population dynamics (Anderson et al, 2008; Gamelon et al, 2019; Rouyer et al, 2012). Understanding the causes and consequences of spatiotemporal population dynamics greatly enhances our capacity to predict and manage natural systems and natural resource yields in the face of rapid anthropogenic environmental change (Engen et al, 2018; Rouyer et al, 2012; Schindler et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synergistic effects of harvest and climate drive synchronous somatic growth within key New Zealand fisheries

Morrongiello

Horn

Maolagáin

et al. 2021

Global Change Biology

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Fisheries harvest has pervasive impacts on wild fish populations, including the truncation of size and age structures, altered population dynamics and density, and modified habitat and assemblage composition. Understanding the degree to which harvest‐induced impacts increase the sensitivity of individuals, populations and ultimately species to environmental change is essential to ensuring sustainable fisheries management in a rapidly changing world. Here we generated multiple long‐term (44–62 years), annually resolved, somatic growth chronologies of four commercially important fishes from New Zealand's coastal and shelf waters. We used these novel data to investigate how regional‐ and basin‐scale environmental variability, in concert with fishing activity, affected individual somatic growth rates and the magnitude of spatial synchrony among stocks. Changes in somatic growth can affect individual fitness and a range of population and fishery metrics such as recruitment success, maturation schedules and stock biomass. Across all species, individual growth benefited from a fishing‐induced release of density controls. For nearshore snapper and tarakihi, regional‐scale wind and temperature also additively affected growth, indicating that future climate change‐induced warming and potentially strengthened winds will initially promote the productivity of more poleward populations. Fishing increased the sensitivity of deep‐water hoki and ling growth to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). A forecast shift to a positive IPO phase, in concert with current harvest strategies, will likely promote individual hoki and ling growth. At the species level, historical fishing practices and IPO synergized to strengthen spatial synchrony in average growth between stocks separated by 400–600 nm of ocean. Increased spatial synchrony can, however, increase the vulnerability of stocks to deleterious stochastic events. Together, our individual‐ and species‐level results show how fishing and environmental factors can conflate to initially promote individual growth but then possibly heighten the sensitivity of stocks to environmental change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synergistic effects of harvest and climate drive synchronous somatic growth within key New Zealand fisheries

Morrongiello

Horn

Maolagáin

et al. 2021

Global Change Biology

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“…Whilst many studies on synchrony have focused on geographically disjunct populations of the same species, synchronous fluctuations in biological parameters can also occur across species (interspecific synchrony) (Hansen et al 2013, Koenig and Liebhold 2016). Three main processes are known to enforce spatially synchronous fluctuations across populations and species (Liebhold et al 2004): 1) regional‐scale fluctuations in environmental variables, such as climate (known as the ‘Moran Effect’ – Moran 1953, Koenig 2002, Sæther et al 2007); 2) large‐scale trophic interactions such as predator–prey or parasite–host regulation (Ims and Andreassen 2000, Huitu et al 2005) or widespread harvesting of species (Frank et al 2016, Gamelon et al 2019); and 3) individual dispersal (Ranta et al 1997, Koenig 2001). These processes often act simultaneously on populations (Cheal et al 2007) and are further affected by other factors, such as geographical patterns or habitat (Powney et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Detecting the presence, and understanding the drivers, of synchrony is essential for natural resource management (Schindler et al 2010, Gamelon et al 2019). In synchronously fluctuating populations, parameters such as density, growth or survival rate are more likely to covary, which can make them more vulnerable to stochastic events and to local or global extinction (Liebhold et al 2004), can affect commercial viability of harvest (Schindler et al 2010, Frank et al 2016), and can have far‐reaching consequences to community structure (Post and Forchhammer 2002, Hansen et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Marine regime shifts impact synchrony of deep‐sea fish growth in the northeast Atlantic

Tanner

Giacomello

Menezes

et al. 2020

Oikos

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The complexity and spatio–temporal scale of populations’ dynamics influence how populations respond to large‐scale ecological pressures. Detecting and attributing synchrony (i.e. temporally coincident fluctuations in populations’ parameters) is key as synchronous populations can become more vulnerable to stochastic events that can affect the viability of harvest and have profound consequences to community structure. Here, we aimed to estimate the level of synchrony in fish growth within and among species across 1 million km2 and identify the environmental drivers contributing to synchronous population fluctuations. We developed otolith increment‐based growth chronologies for two deep‐sea scorpaenid fishes (Helicolenus dactylopterus and Pontinus kuhlii) from geographically and bathymetrically disjunct populations in the northeast Atlantic (one species in three locations; two species with different depth preferences). We used hierarchical models to partition variation in growth within and between populations attributing it to intrinsic (age, species, population) and extrinsic (environmental variables) drivers. We assessed synchrony in growth variation within and among species and identified common change points in population specific growth patterns. We documented time‐variant synchrony in growth variation of geographically and bathymetrically segregated deep‐sea fish populations, lasting 25 and 18 years, respectively. The observed synchrony was likely driven by shared environmental forcing (Moran effect) as large‐scale climate indices (East Atlantic pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation) were important environmental drivers of overall growth variation while the onset of synchrony in growth variation was likely related to marine regime shifts occurring in a wide area of the northeast Atlantic that affected the entire ecosystem. However, our capacity to extrapolate growth information across species and locations was dependent on the timing and magnitude of environmental change. Developing a better understanding of the mechanisms driving growth synchrony is key to ensure sustainable management of populations in habitats that are fragile and highly sensible to environmental change, such as the deep‐sea.

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“…In contrast, the development of flexible, MSE-based frameworks encompassing more realistic processes of decision making and human behavior has been largely absent from terrestrial harvesting systems (Bunnefeld et al 2011, Bunnefeld and Milner-Gulland 2016, Moa et al 2017. Indeed, modeling frameworks to date have focused disproportionately on the ecological dimension of terrestrial harvesting systems (Gamelon et al 2019), such as the development of elaborate population and community response models, e.g. to trophy hunting (Whitman et al 2007, Loveridge et al 2016 or the assessment of harvest-induced evolution (Kuparinen and Festa-Bianchet 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating conflict, lobbying, and compliance to predict the sustainability of natural resource use

Cusack¹,

Duthie²,

Minderman³

et al. 2020

E&S

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Predictive models are sorely needed to guide the management of harvested natural resources worldwide, yet existing frameworks fail to integrate the dynamic and interacting governance processes driving unsustainable use. We developed a new framework in which the conflicting interests of three key stakeholders are modeled: managers seeking sustainability, users seeking increases in harvest quota, and conservationists seeking harvest restrictions. Our model allows stakeholder groups to influence management decisions and illegal harvest through flexible functions that reflect widespread lobbying and noncompliance processes. Decision making is modeled through the use of a genetic algorithm, which allows stakeholders to respond to a dynamic social-ecological environment to satisfy their goals. To provide the critical link between conceptual and empirical approaches, we compare predictions from our model against data on 206 harvested terrestrial species from the IUCN Red List. We show that, although lobbying for a ban on resource use can offset low levels of noncompliance, such bias leads to an increased risk of extinction when noncompliance (and therefore illegal harvesting) is high. Management decisions unaffected by lobbying, combined with high rule compliance, resulted in more sustainable resource use. Model predictions were strongly reflected in our analysis of harvested IUCN species, with 81% of those classified under regulated harvest and high compliance showing stable or increasing population trends. Our results highlight the fine balance between maintaining compliance and biasing decisions in the face of lobbying. They also emphasize the urgent need to quantify lobbying and compliance processes across a range of natural resources. Overall, our work provides a holistic and versatile approach to addressing complex social processes underlying the mismanagement of natural resources.

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Does harvesting amplify environmentally induced population fluctuations over time in marine and terrestrial species?

Cited by 29 publications

References 107 publications

Synergistic effects of harvest and climate drive synchronous somatic growth within key New Zealand fisheries

Synergistic effects of harvest and climate drive synchronous somatic growth within key New Zealand fisheries

Marine regime shifts impact synchrony of deep‐sea fish growth in the northeast Atlantic

Integrating conflict, lobbying, and compliance to predict the sustainability of natural resource use

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