Does famine influence sex ratio at birth? Evidence from the 1959–1961 Great Leap Forward Famine in China

Abstract

The current study examined the long-term trend in sex ratio at birth between 1929 and 1982 using retrospective birth histories of 310 101 Chinese women collected in a large, nationally representative sample survey in 1982. The study identified an abrupt decline in sex ratio at birth between April 1960, over a year after the Great Leap Forward Famine began, and October 1963, approximately 2 years after the famine ended, followed by a compensatory rise between October 1963 and July 1965. These findings support the adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis that mothers in good condition are more likely to give birth to sons, whereas mothers in poor condition are more likely to give birth to daughters. In addition, these findings help explain the lack of consistent evidence reported by earlier studies based on the 1944–1945 Dutch Hunger Winter or the 1942 Leningrad Siege.

Could changes in reported sex ratios at birth during China's 1958-1961 famine support the adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis?

“…This inevitably leads to the following questions. Why do our conclusions differ considerably from those drawn from the study conducted by Song (2012), which also analysed the data collected by China"s 1982 National One-Per-Thousand Population Sample Survey on Fertility? Are these differences related to the ways in which the data have been analysed?…”

“…According to the author, "the study identified an abrupt decline in sex ratio at birth between April 1960, over a year after the Great Leap Forward Famine began, and October 1963, approximately 2 years after the famine ended, followed by a compensatory rise between October 1963 and July 1965. These findings support the adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis that mothers in good condition are more likely to give birth to sons, whereas mothers in poor condition are more likely to give birth to daughters" (Song 2012: 1). Song"s paper has been publicized widely.…”

“…It was also asserted that the above suggestion was supported by the change in SRB during the great famine that took place in China in the late 1950s and early 1960s (Song 2012). To examine the above hypothesis and this claim, we have further investigated three questions that are closely related to changes in reported SRB during the time of the famine.…”

“…Finally, through comparing the value of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) obtained for each of these models, Song determined the globally optimal number of final break points. The model with the lowest AIC was chosen as best representing the pattern of change in reported SRB (Song 2012). In Song"s study the estimation was made using all births recorded from September 1929 to June 1982.…”

“…Many studies have shown that the quality of the two fertility surveys is high (Coale 1984;Lavely 1987;Wang 2002). Further discussion about the data collected by the two surveys can also be found in Zhao and Reimondos (2012; see also Lin and Wang 1991;Song 2012).…”