Does European Union Really Matter for Long-Run Growth and Development? In Search of the Missing Counterfactual

Garoupa, Nuno; Spruk, Rok

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3568134

Cited by 3 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…The reported and somewhat positive effect of being an EU member on growth appears to be robust across more than 10,000 randomly generated donor samples. Somewhat intriguingly, they find that Greece is the only exception to the positive effects since its likely growth trajectory without EU membership appears to be better than the actual growth trajectory with the EU membership, although no clear consensus has been reached in the literature (Garoupa & Spruk, 2020).…”

Section: Prior Literaturementioning

confidence: 98%

“…One such example relates to membership of the European Union and the effect of the institutional bonus of the EU-wide institutional framework on within-country economic growth. To isolate the effect of EU membership on growth, Campos et al (2019) and Garoupa and Spruk (2020) set up the synthetic control designed to include only one treated country and several non-treated ones. This implies that a single EU country is used in the treatment sample whilst the control samples include only non-EU units to capture the effect of EU membership on the economic growth trajectory.…”

Section: Treatment Scopementioning

confidence: 99%

“…An important caveat to keep in mind concerns multiple cases of the same treatment. For instance, several scholars have tried to estimate the economic growth effects of institutional integration (Campos et al., 2019; Garoupa & Spruk, 2020; Maseland & Spruk, 2020). One such example relates to membership of the European Union and the effect of the institutional bonus of the EU‐wide institutional framework on within‐country economic growth.…”

Section: Applications In Comparative Economic History: Scopementioning

confidence: 99%

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Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history

Gilchrist

Emery

Garoupa

et al. 2022

Journal of Economic Surveys

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The Synthetic Control Method (SCM) has become a widely used tool in both identifying and estimating the causal impact of policies, shocks, and interventions of interest on economic and social outcomes. The technique has become particularly popular in estimating the effect of these shocks on a single treated unit. As a transparent and data‐driven statistical technique, the goal of the SCM is to construct an artificial control group for the treated unit that has similar pretreatment characteristics but has not undergone the treatment itself thus developing a plausible counterfactual against which impacts resulting from structural changes can be evaluated as part of a historical investigation. The method works well when the control group balances pre‐intervention outcomes and auxiliary covariates as much as possible. In spite of its widespread adoption, the use of the SCM in comparative economic history has lagged behind other areas of economics. In this article, we critically review the properties of the SCM and discuss the necessary conditions for a plausible application of the technique to comparative economic history in support of research designed to answer some of the long‐running historical questions and demonstrate the potential to use SCM in comparative economic history studies by estimating the impact of the oil discovery in the 1920s on Venezuela's long‐term economic growth.

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Section: Prior Literaturementioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Treatment Scopementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Applications In Comparative Economic History: Scopementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history

Gilchrist

Emery

Garoupa

et al. 2022

Journal of Economic Surveys

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…al. 2019, Garoupa and Spruk 2020, Maseland and Spruk 2020. One such example is the membership of the European Union and the effect of the institutional bonus of the EUwide institutional framework on within-country economic growth.…”

Section: Treatment Scopementioning

confidence: 99%

“…al. (2019) and Garoupa and Spruk (2020) free-trade zone on a range of economic outcomes. These results are further confirmed once the social impact of the free-trade zone is considered (Castilho et.…”

Section: Treatment Scopementioning

confidence: 99%

Synthetic Control Estimator: A Tool for Comparative Case Studies in Economic History

Emery¹,

Gilchrist²,

Spruk³

et al. 2020

SSRN Journal

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Measuring the Effect of Entry Into the Eurozone on Economic Growth – Data Storytelling Using Clustering and Anfis

Bosna,

Brlečić Valčić,

Peša

2024

Technological and Economic Development of Economy

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The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of a country’s entry into the monetary union on its economic variables growth rate of real GDP as well as on GDP per capita growth for the period from 2010 to 2020. The clustering method and the ANFIS method were used in the data analysis. A total of two cluster analyses were performed. The first cluster includes countries that joined the EU in 2004 and became EZ members by 2010. The second cluster refers to those countries that joined the EU in 2004 but are not yet members of the EZ. For the first individual cluster analysis two models were analysed and for the second individual cluster three models were analysed using the ANFIS method. As expected, the results showed that GDP growth is connected with trade, inflation and gross investments in fixed capital in the observed countries, while GDP per capita is connected with unemployment, interest rates and public debt. With regard to GDP growth, the difference between countries that are in the eurozone and those that are not is not significant, which is in line with other studies.

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Does European Union Really Matter for Long-Run Growth and Development? In Search of the Missing Counterfactual

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history

Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history

Synthetic Control Estimator: A Tool for Comparative Case Studies in Economic History

Measuring the Effect of Entry Into the Eurozone on Economic Growth – Data Storytelling Using Clustering and Anfis

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