Does Democratization Depress Participation? Voter Turnout in the Latin American and Eastern European Transitional Democracies

Abstract

Scholars and policy makers have advanced conflicting hypotheses about the dynamics of voter participation in nascent democratic regimes. The authors advance the research program by examining 108 parliamentary elections in postauthoritarian Latin America and post-Communist Europe from 1978 through 2003. Institutional, political, and demographic variables shape turnout in new democracies, but there is also a strong temporal effect: voter turnout drops sharply after founding elections and continues to fall through the fourth electoral cycle. Moreover, after appropriate controls, rates of turnout in Eastern Europe are consistently higher than the equivalent rates for Latin America. The authors attribute these differences to historical legacies and the mode of transition to democracy.

Who Votes in Latin America? A Test of Three Theoretical Perspectives

“…In line with previous literature (Fornos et al, 2004;Kostadinova & Power, 2007), the existence of compulsory voting laws effectively shapes individual behavior. The likelihood that an individual decides to vote in presidential elections increases significantly in countries where voting is compulsory, especially in countries where such laws are effectively enforced.…”

“…For this reason, we also include in our analysis important institutional and economic factors that explain aggregate behavior. In line with previous literature, we consider the effect of five institutional and contextual variables: compulsory voting, concurrent elections, closeness of the electoral results, the level of democracy (Polity IV score), and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (Fornos et al, 2004;Kostadinova & Power, 2007;Pérez-Liñán, 2001).…”

“…Electoral participation increases when registration procedures are efficient, when voting is compulsory and sanctions for abstaining are enforced, and when legislative and presidential elections are held concurrently. Turnout also tends to be higher in transitional elections (Kostadinova & Power, 2007). Other scholars have analyzed the differences in electoral participation within countries, comparing turnout rates in different regions or municipalities (e.g., Lehoucq & Wall, 2004;Remmer, 2010).…”

Explaining Voter Turnout in Taiwan Legislative Elections

“…In addition, the dynamic interaction between past and current voter turnout has been characterized by decline, where voters who place a vote in one election are less like to participate in the next election (see, for example, Gray & Caul, 2000;Kostadinova, 2003;Kostadinova & Power, 2007). Gray & Caul (2000) detail a dynamic model of voter turnout to describe the decrease in voter turnout in advanced industrial democracies.…”

“…The literature has attempted to explain voter behavior by integrating a dynamic component to account for turnout fluctuations (see, for example, Gray & Caul, 2000;Kostadinova, 2003;Franklin, 2004;Geys, 2006;Kostadinova & Power, 2007;Denny & Doyle, 2009). 5 Franklin (2004), for example, argues that it is very important to integrate a dynamic component in the analysis of voter turnout.…”