Does consumer confidence affect durable goods spending during bad and good economic times equally?

Ahmed, Mansur; Cassou, Steven P.

doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2016.08.008

Cited by 47 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 23 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Barsky and Sims (2011) find that the information or “news” channel has extensive explanatory power in the medium term, but evidence of playing a major part in the “boom‐bust” cycle, often cited in literature, is wanting. This state dependent effect of consumer sentiment is further explored by Ahmed and Cassou (2016) who support informational contagion as the main argument in times of economic expansion and “animal spirits” in times of contraction.…”

Section: Understanding Consumer Confidencementioning

confidence: 92%

Media‐Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence

Odendaal

Reid

Kirsten³

2020

South African J Economics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper, we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices, using large amounts of media data, as an alternative to the conventional survey method used to create the consumer confidence index in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of possible candidate sentiment indices constructed from a combination of different text sources and dictionaries that best mimic the traditional survey‐based consumer confidence index from the South African Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The results conclude that it is possible to create an index using sentiment analysis using online editorial data that does resemble the BER’s consumer confidence index. The different media‐based sentiment indices (MSI) show a significant level of correlation and co‐movement with the BER’s CCI. Impulse responses and cross‐correlation functions indicate that the MSI could potentially lead the survey‐based method up to two quarters. Furthermore, Granger‐causality tests show that the media‐based indices are good predictors of future consumer confidence index values. The results provide motivation for further study on the use of sentiment‐based techniques and online media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa.

show abstract

Section: Understanding Consumer Confidencementioning

confidence: 92%

Media‐Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence

Odendaal

Reid

Kirsten³

2020

South African J Economics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…8 We also investigate the impacts of oil price shocks on the consumption growth contingent on the oil dependence of the U.S. states. Following the method by Ahmed and Cassou (2016), a smooth transition function approach is used to switch the oil dependence of U.S. states into high-and low-regimes. The nonlinear model is defined as follows:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of disaggregated oil shocks on state-level consumption of the United States

Gupta

Sheng

Eyden

et al. 2020

Applied Economics Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We analyse the impact of oil supply, global economic activity, oil-specific consumption demand and oil inventory demand shocks on state-level consumption of the United States (U.S.) over the period of 1975:Q1 to 2012:Q2. We find that positive economic activity shocks and oil production shocks (associated with increase and decrease in oil prices respectively) increase consumption growth. At the same time oil specific consumption and inventor demand shocks raise oil prices and reduce the growth rate of state-level consumption. Across the shocks, the strongest effect originates from the global demand shock. In addition, our above observations are virtually invariant to the degree of oil dependency (oil consumed minus oil produced as ratio of oil consumed) of the states. Our results have important policy implications.

show abstract

“…Two out of five questions concern the current business conditions, while the rest of the questions regard the future business conditions (Singal, 2016). The use and the value of University of Michigan CSI have been used intertemporally by prior empirical studies such as Curtin (1982), Huth et al (1994), Singal (2016) and Ahmed and Cassou (2016). In particular, CSI contains measures of attitudes toward personal finances, general business conditions, and market conditions or prices, so as to determine the changes in consumers' willingness to buy and to predict their subsequent discretionary expenditures.…”

Section: Methodological Approach and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Undoubtedly, Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is the most well-known and cited confidence index incorporating "news" on future productivity that has long lasting effects on economy like aggregate consumption (Ahmed and Cassou, 2016). Otoo (1999) revealed that changes in equity values and changes in consumer sentiment are contemporaneously correlated.…”

confidence: 99%

The effect of Dow Jones Sustainability Index on Consumer Sentiment Index

Sariannidis

Giannarakis

Partalidou

et al. 2017

Investment Management and Financial Innovations

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study intends to investigate whether stock returns affect the consumer sentiment. In particular, socially responsible companies are incorporated in the sample in order to capture the specification of socially responsible investors. For this reason, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is used as a proxy for consumer confidence, while data from Dow Jones Sustainability Index US is employed as a proxy for socially responsible companies for the period 1999-2016. The generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model applied and illustrated that stock returns affect positively the consumer confidence. The result has important implications for investors and policy makers.

show abstract

Does consumer confidence affect durable goods spending during bad and good economic times equally?

Cited by 47 publications

References 23 publications

Media‐Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence

Media‐Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence

The impact of disaggregated oil shocks on state-level consumption of the United States

The effect of Dow Jones Sustainability Index on Consumer Sentiment Index

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About