Does Capital Asset Pricing Model Apply in a Varying Market Conditions?

Abstract

Purpose: Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) has been one of the major asset pricing tools applied on the capital market to price listed securities. Several researchers have challenged the overall efficiency and validity of the model in terms of its ability to explain the behavior of the average returns on the basis of a single variable. The debate is now taking a new trend which aimed at assessing the robustness of the model in varying market conditions and this has been the main focus of the study; that is to determine whether or not CAPM applies to securities on Ghana Stock Exchange at different market conditions.Methodology: Data on monthly returns of 29 shares were selected from the Ghana Stock Exchange spanning from 2010 to 2018 and analyzed using regression analysis on the assumption of constant risk and varying risk situations.Findings: The study evidenced that the systematic risks differ between bulls, tranquil and bear periods. Market conditions therefore have impact on the CAPM model. CAPM is not robust with changes in market conditions after all especially in an emerging market such as the Ghana Stock Exchange.Contribution to theory, practice and policy: The result of this study implies that, the widely accepted CAPM for asset pricing model is not robust to changes in market conditions. It is therefore essential to predict future market conditions when formulating investment strategy as an investor. Again, investors should vary their risk premium depending on their expectation of the market conditions at the time of investment.