Documentation of Uncertainties and Biases Associated with Surface Temperature Measurement Sites for Climate Change Assessment

Pielke, Roger A.; Nielsen‐Gammon, John W.; Davey, Christopher A.; Angel, James R.; Bliss, Odie; Doesken, Nolan J.; Cai, Ming; Fall, Souleymane; Niyogi, Dev; Gallo, Kevin P.; Hale, Robert C.; Hubbard, Kenneth G.; Lin, Xiaomao; Li, Hong; Raman, Sethu

doi:10.1175/bams-88-6-913

Cited by 84 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 39 publications

(64 reference statements)

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“…correlation coefficient of adjusted USHCN vs NARR for Orangeburg: 0.93). This agreement confirms findings from previous studies, which show that both NCEP/NCAR and NARR satisfactorily capture the observed intra-seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations (Kalnay and Cai, 2003;Kalnay et al, 2006;Pielke et al, 2007a). Furthermore, the combined use of observations and reanalysis can yield additional information that is related to station environment and observation practices.…”

Section: Observation Reanalysis and Omr Trendssupporting

confidence: 90%

“…However, fewer variations occur in the NARR trends (smaller standard deviation: 0.16°C), as compared to the raw observed trends (0.22°C) and, to a lesser extent, the adjusted trends (0.17°C). Such patterns were also observed with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (Pielke et al, 2007a), and show that, while station observations express local characteristics, the reanalysis effectively captures regional trends. Previous studies based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis have found that the reanalysis exhibits a smaller warming trend as compared to the surface observations (Kalnay and Cai, 2003;Lim et al, 2005;Kalnay et al, 2006) and as a result, the OMR trends (trend differences) are generally positive, especially for urban stations.…”

Section: Observation Reanalysis and Omr Trendssupporting

confidence: 59%

“…Likewise, the reanalysis can be used to detect non-climatic biases that are introduced by changes in observation practices and station locations (Kalnay et al, 2006, Pielke et al, 2007a, 2007b.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of land use land cover on temperature trends over the continental United States: assessment using the North American Regional Reanalysis

Fall

Niyogi

Gluhovsky

et al. 2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

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181

101

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ABSTRACT:We investigate the sensitivity of surface temperature trends to land use land cover change (LULC) over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using the observation minus reanalysis (OMR) approach. We estimated the OMR trends for the 1979-2003 period from the US Historical Climate Network (USHCN), and the NCEP-NCAR North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). We used a new mean square differences (MSDs)-based assessment for the comparisons between temperature anomalies from observations and interpolated reanalysis data. Trends of monthly mean temperature anomalies show a strong agreement, especially between adjusted USHCN and NARR (r = 0.9 on average) and demonstrate that NARR captures the climate variability at different time scales. OMR trend results suggest that, unlike findings from studies based on the global reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis), NARR often has a larger warming trend than adjusted observations (on average, 0.28 and 0.27°C/decade respectively).OMR trends were found to be sensitive to land cover types. We analysed decadal OMR trends as a function of land types using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and new National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 1992-2001 Retrofit Land Cover Change. The magnitude of OMR trends obtained from the NLDC is larger than the one derived from the 'static' AVHRR. Moreover, land use conversion often results in more warming than cooling.Overall, our results confirm the robustness of the OMR method for detecting non-climatic changes at the station level, evaluating the impacts of adjustments performed on raw observations, and most importantly, providing a quantitative estimate of additional warming trends associated with LULC changes at local and regional scales. As most of the warming trends that we identify can be explained on the basis of LULC changes, we suggest that in addition to considering the greenhouse gases-driven radiative forcings, multi-decadal and longer climate models simulations must further include LULC changes.

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Section: Observation Reanalysis and Omr Trendssupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Observation Reanalysis and Omr Trendssupporting

confidence: 59%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Impacts of land use land cover on temperature trends over the continental United States: assessment using the North American Regional Reanalysis

Fall

Niyogi

Gluhovsky

et al. 2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

181

101

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As shown in Figure 1, the KMA operates 29 automated weather stations (AWSs) in Seoul today that log air temperature, wind speed and direction, relative humidity, and many other meteorological data at the near-ground level. While several studies report problems with poorly located weather stations for research [75,76], these stations in Seoul are set up mostly on publicly owned land at locations with minimal interference from most immediate surrounding conditions [77].…”

Section: Temperature Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Seasonal and Diurnal Influence of Surrounding Land Use on Temperature: Findings from Seoul, South Korea

Kim¹,

Kim²

2017

Sustainability

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Abstract:There is a growing interest in understanding how the built environment affects temperature in cities. This study explores the impact of land use on temperature and how it varies by season and time of day in Seoul, South Korea. Unlike other studies that rely on extracted data from remotely sensed information, this study uses land use data from local GIS and near-ground temperature data from a network of state-run weather stations. To deal with multicollinearity among the land use variables, partial least squares regression models were used for analysis. Results suggest that residential and commercial uses and roads increase the temperature while open spaces decrease it. In detail, central commercial use, high-density residential use, and roads were influential heaters, while greenery was an influential cooler throughout the year. This study suggests the need for place-based planning and design solutions that help build climate resilience of cities.

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“…Betts [2006] found that DTR is closely related to the surface net longwave radiation. The use of Tn as a diagnostic global warming metric was also cautioned because it is more sensitive (than Tx) to a variety of factors (e.g., land use change, station siting, and movement of station sites) [Pielke et al, 2007a[Pielke et al, , 2007bFall et al, 2011] and because it reflects a redistribution of heat by changes in atmospheric turbulence rather than by an accumulation of heat in the atmospheric boundary layer [McNider et al, 2012]. These points were clearly illustrated by the widespread timing of daily Tx and Tn occurrences [Wang and Zeng, 2013].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Range of monthly mean hourly land surface air temperature diurnal cycle over high northern latitudes

Wang

Zeng

2014

JGR Atmospheres

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Daily maximum and minimum temperatures over global land are fundamental climate variables, and their difference represents the diurnal temperature range (DTR). While the differences between the monthly averaged DTR (MDTR) and the range of monthly averaged hourly temperature diurnal cycle (RMDT) are easy to understand qualitatively, their differences have not been quantified over global land areas. Based on our newly developed in situ data (Climatic Research Unit) reanalysis (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) merged hourly temperature data from 1979 to 2009, RMDT in January is found to be much smaller than that in July over high northern latitudes, as it is much more affected by the diurnal radiative forcing than by the horizontal advection of temperature. In contrast, MDTR in January is comparable to that in July over high northern latitudes, but it is much larger than January RMDT, as it primarily reflects the movement of lower frequency synoptic weather systems. The area-averaged RMDT trends north of 40°N are near zero in November, December, and January, while the trends of MDTR are negative. These results suggest the need to use both the traditional MDTR and RMDT suggested here in future observational and modeling studies. Furthermore, MDTR and its trend are more sensitive to the starting hour of a 24 h day used in the calculations than those for RMDT, and this factor also needs to be considered in model evaluations using observational data.

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Documentation of Uncertainties and Biases Associated with Surface Temperature Measurement Sites for Climate Change Assessment

Abstract: The use of temperature data from poorly sited stations can lead to a false sense of confidence in the robustness of multidecadal surface air temperature trend assessments.

Cited by 84 publications

References 39 publications

Impacts of land use land cover on temperature trends over the continental United States: assessment using the North American Regional Reanalysis

Impacts of land use land cover on temperature trends over the continental United States: assessment using the North American Regional Reanalysis

The Seasonal and Diurnal Influence of Surrounding Land Use on Temperature: Findings from Seoul, South Korea

Range of monthly mean hourly land surface air temperature diurnal cycle over high northern latitudes

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