Do text messages increase voter registration? Evidence from RCTs with a local authority and an advocacy organisation in the UK

Cheng-Matsuno, Vanessa; Foos, Florian; John, Peter; Unan, Aslı

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102572

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The use of AI allows digital, computer-based communication to take on features that were formerly reserved for human volunteer-to-voter interactions. Campaigns have long used text messages and P2P messaging apps to allow human volunteers to interact with voters dynamically (Moura and Michelson, 2017;Cheng-Matsuno et al, 2023;Schein et al, 2021). A cold or warm campaign text message to the voter would be followed by questions or feedback from the voter to the campaign, and a volunteer would in turn respond with tailored information.…”

Section: Generative Ai Today: the Role Of Campaign Assistantmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Use of AI by Election Campaigns

Foos

2024

Preprint

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The rapid development of artificial intelligence and especially large language models has now reached a stage, where generative AI is both powerful and accessible enough to be used at scale in election campaigns, at least in principle. In this paper, I outline some of the potential legal uses of AI by election campaigns: Generative AI already cuts costs for campaigns by assisting them at drafting communication such as fundraising emails or text messages. In the near future, the use of generative AI can potentially transform the way campaigns interact with voters by allowing them to conduct AI-to-voter conversations in many languages, and potentially at scale. While campaigns have personalised and tailored digital communication before the advent of mass-accessible generative AI-tools, the ability for LLMs to engage dynamically with information and arguments provided by voters is new and, potentially, transformative. The question is whether AI-to-voter communication via peer-to-peer messaging is scalable, and the answer depends on how access to personal data is regulated, which varies between countries and regions. If campaigns are legally able to access personal contact data, AI-to-voter communication is potentially disruptive, and could impact the political playing field in the mid-term.

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Section: Generative Ai Today: the Role Of Campaign Assistantmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Use of AI by Election Campaigns

Foos

2024

Preprint

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“…Direct mail and postcards have also been employed as effective means of voter registration (John et al, 2015;Mann and Bryant, 2020). Other registration experiments done by email and text message explicitly targeted at low-registration groups have recorded divergent findings (Bennion and Nickerson, 2018;Cheng-Matsuno et al, 2023;Kölle et al, 2019;Nickerson, 2007). Some of the most promising interventions take place within the school context.…”

Section: The Scarcity Of Evidence On the Effects Of Digital Ads On El...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Null effects of social media ads on voter registration: Three digital field experiments

Unan,

John,

Foos

et al. 2024

Research & Politics

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Civic organisations and progressive campaigns regard digital advertising as an essential method to register to vote low-participation groups, such as ethnic minorities, young voters and frequent home movers like private-sector tenants. Digital strategies appear to be promising in countries like the UK, where the registration process can be completed online, usually in less than 5 minutes, using a web link in the advert. But are typical digital campaigns effective in registering voters? To find out, we provide evidence from three randomised controlled trials: two conducted with advocacy organisations and the third run by the research team, carried out in two types of UK elections (general and local) and assigned either at the aggregate (Study 1 and Study 2) or individual (Study 3) level. Despite wide reach and relatively high rates of engagement, we find that the digital ad campaigns trialed across three studies did not affect under-registered groups’ voter registrations. These null findings raise questions about commonly-used digital advertising strategies to register marginalised groups. They are consistent with other studies that report either null or minimal effects of digital ads on other types of political behaviour.

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Who is Mobilized to Vote by Short Text Messages? Evidence from a Nationwide Field Experiment with Young Voters

Hirvonen,

Lassander,

Sääksvuori

et al. 2024

Polit Behav

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Using a large randomized controlled trial and rich individual-level data on eligible voters and their household members, we evaluate how get-out-the-vote (GOTV) appeals affect inequalities in voting, transmit from treated to untreated individuals within households, and how the transmission of voting decisions through family networks influences inequalities in voting. We find that receiving a text message reminder before the Finnish county elections in 2022 mobilized mainly low-propensity voters. As a result, the GOTV intervention reduced existing social inequalities in voting within the target group of young voters. We remarkably find that over 100% of the direct treatment effect spilled over to untreated household members. These spillovers reduced inequality in political participation among the older voters who were not part of the target group. Overall, our results exemplify how randomized controlled trials with a limited focus on the analysis of individuals in the treatment and control groups alone may lead to misestimating the compositional effects of get-out-the-vote interventions.

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Do text messages increase voter registration? Evidence from RCTs with a local authority and an advocacy organisation in the UK

Cited by 3 publications

References 31 publications

The Use of AI by Election Campaigns

The Use of AI by Election Campaigns

Null effects of social media ads on voter registration: Three digital field experiments

Who is Mobilized to Vote by Short Text Messages? Evidence from a Nationwide Field Experiment with Young Voters

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